What move does the options market price into Hub's report?

Implied ±11.0%, either direction.

How often does Hub move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 7 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

HUBGNasdaqArrangement of Transportation of Freight & Cargo

Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

26.86

pre 26.85 −1.93%

Pre-market16:00 ETdelayed

Open28.00Volume1.0MMkt cap$1.7BP/E15.34EPS1.75Div yield1.83%

Day26.85 – 28.000%52-wk24.98 – 52.717%

HUBG

Hub Group, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±11.0%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±5.6%·×1.98·rich

23.8929.81

straddle ±15.2%

spot 26.85exp Nov 20ATM strike 25ATM straddle 4.80IV 102%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

after close · in 1 day

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−5.13%

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Sep 15 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

44.00%

of HUBG revenue · 10 largest customers

customerHUBG 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+1.75%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

284 managers

Top fund weight

0.08%

HUBG weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Hub (HUBG) is expected to report on Nov 5 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 7≥ implied

avg implied: ±7.4%
avg realized: ±5.6%

Aug 1 '24Aug 1 '24confirmed±6.2%▼−7.94%×1.29

Oct 30 '24Oct 30 '24confirmed±6.6%▼−0.82%×0.12

Feb 6 '25Feb 6 '25confirmed±8.4%▼−4.23%×0.50

May 8 '25May 8 '25confirmed±8.9%▲+0.30%×0.03

Q2 FY25Jul 31 '25confirmed±7.5%▼−4.05%×0.54

Q3 FY25Oct 30 '25confirmed±6.0%▲+3.86%×0.65

Feb 5 '26Feb 5 '26confirmed±8.2%▼−18.25%×2.23

Sep 15 '26Sep 15 '26confirmed—▼−5.13%—

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Sep '26—▼−5.13%—

Feb '26±8.2%▼−18.25%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 28 close

0.01OI · 3 expiries · Oct 28 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

129+87%Nov 2016d10,059+8%

3,6160%Jan 1572d0.615,910+2%0.61

75+4%Apr 16163d1.0671+3%1.06

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d129+87%10,059+8%0.01

Jan 1572d3,6160%5,910+2%0.61

Apr 16163d75+4%71+3%1.06

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±15.2%

Funds 4

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY25

3.10%as filednet margin · revenue +3.19% QoQ · −5.31% YoY

Revenue

$934M+3.19% QoQ

Gross profit

$791M+3.81% QoQ

84.69% margin

Operating income

$39M+14.83% QoQ

4.22% margin

Pre-tax income

$39M+16.91% QoQ

Net income

$29M+15.57% QoQ

3.10% margin

Cost of revenue

$143M−0.16% QoQ

Operating expenses

$752M+3.29% QoQ

Other operating $684M

Depreciation $31M

SG&A $27M

Other operating $10M

Other expense

$926,000

Tax

$10M+21.13% QoQ

Revenue$934M+3.19%

Gross profit

$791M+3.81%

84.69% margin

Operating income

$39M+14.83%

4.22% margin

Pre-tax income

$39M+16.91%

Net income

$29M+15.57%

3.10% margin

Cost of revenue

$143M−0.16%

Operating expenses

$752M+3.29%

Other operating $684M

Depreciation $31M

SG&A $27M

Other expense

$926,000

Tax$10M+21.13%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '25 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×1.73· ±2.8% vs ±1.6% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±2.8%4 of 10×1.73

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.8%11 of 19×1.11

PPIproducer prices±1.8%8 of 10×1.07

NFPjobs report±1.6%5 of 10×0.99

GDPgross domestic product±1.6%10 of 19×0.97

FOMCrate decision±1.5%7 of 24×0.94

CPROFcorporate profits±1.1%9 of 12×0.66

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.6% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.6% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.47 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY25	Oct 30 '25 · confirmed	0.47	—
Q2 FY25	Jul 31 '25 · confirmed	0.42	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod