What move does the options market price into Herc's report?

Implied ±22.5%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Herc move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

HRINYSEServices-Miscellaneous Equipment Rental & Leasing

Herc Holdings Inc (HRI) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

168.97

+0.83 · +0.50%

post 169.23 +0.15%

Closed15:59 ET

Open169.48Volume757,591Mkt cap$5.6BP/E43.50EPS3.89Div yield1.67%

Day169.23 – 172.100%52-wk87.56 – 185.5983%

HRI

Herc Holdings Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±22.5%implied · straddle

131.80208.22

spot 170.01exp Mar 19ATM strike 170ATM straddle 44.95IV 55%

Nov 3 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 16

before open · in 105 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+22.76%

vs ±12.7% implied · ×1.79

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 27 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

filed ties

13F top-10 QoQ

+3.38%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

336 managers

Top fund weight

0.15%

HRI weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Herc (HRI) is expected to report on Feb 16 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±9.5%
avg realized: ±10.8%

Feb 13 '25Feb 13 '25confirmed±7.1%▼−6.02%×0.84

Apr 22 '25Apr 22 '25confirmed±11.9%▼−8.22%×0.69

Jul 29 '25Jul 29 '25confirmed±10.0%▼−17.53%×1.76

Oct 28 '25Oct 28 '25confirmed±1.6%▲+4.02%×2.54

Feb 17 '26Feb 17 '26confirmed±7.2%▼−13.29%×1.84

Q1 FY26Apr 28 '26confirmed±12.2%▲+7.50%×0.62

Q2 FY26Jul 28 '26confirmed±13.1%▼−7.35%×0.56

Q3 FY26Oct 27 '26confirmed±12.7%▲+22.76%×1.79

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q3 FY26±12.7%▲+22.76%×1.79

Q2 FY26±13.1%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 29 close

0.55OI · 3 expiries · Oct 29 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

817+3%Nov 2017d0.701,168+2%0.70

712+4%Dec 1845d0.681,049+1%0.68

report · Feb 16 · before open · est.

660%Mar 19136d120−1%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2017d817+3%1,168+2%0.70

Dec 1845d712+4%1,049+1%0.68

report · Feb 16 · before open · est.

Mar 19136d660%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±22.5%

Funds 4

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

7.62%as filednet margin · revenue +13.29% QoQ · +4.60% YoY

Revenue

$1.4B+13.29% QoQ

Gross profit

$500M+32.63% QoQ

36.66% margin

Operating income

$247M+71.53% QoQ

18.11% margin

Pre-tax income

$120M+400.00% QoQ

Net income

$104M+447.37% QoQ

7.62% margin

Cost of revenue

$864M+4.47% QoQ

Operating expenses

$253M+8.58% QoQ

SG&A $178M

Depreciation $74M

Other expense

$127M

Tax

$16M+220.00% QoQ

Revenue$1.4B+13.29%

Gross profit

$500M+32.63%

36.66% margin

Operating income

$247M+71.53%

18.11% margin

Pre-tax income

$120M+400.00%

Net income

$104M+447.37%

7.62% margin

Cost of revenue

$864M+4.47%

Operating expenses

$253M+8.58%

SG&A $178M

Depreciation $74M

Other expense

$127M

Tax$16M+220.00%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.06· ±2.6% vs ±2.5% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±2.6%13 of 24×1.06

NFPjobs report±2.6%4 of 10×1.04

GDPgross domestic product±2.5%10 of 19×0.99

PPIproducer prices±2.1%3 of 10×0.86

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.1%7 of 19×0.84

CPROFcorporate profits±1.8%7 of 12×0.72

CPIconsumer prices±1.3%2 of 10×0.53

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±2.5% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.5% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 3.10 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 27 '26 · confirmed	3.10	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 28 '26 · confirmed	0.57	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 28 '26 · confirmed	-0.72	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod