What move does the options market price into Harmonic's report?

Implied ±12.2%, either direction.

How often does Harmonic move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

HLITNasdaqRadio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment

Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

10.27

Closed16:06 ET

Open10.49Volume1.3MMkt cap$1.1BP/E21.40EPS0.48

Day10.13 – 10.5435%52-wk8.47 – 17.6820%

HLIT

Harmonic Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±12.2%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±7.5%·×1.62·rich

8.9811.48

straddle ±16.8%

spot 10.23exp Nov 20ATM strike 10ATM straddle 2.03IV 104%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 2

after close · in 1 day

confirmedQ3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+9.00%

vs ±16.8% implied · ×0.54

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 12 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

84.00%

of HLIT revenue · Top 10 customers

customerHLIT 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+12.82%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

258 managers

Top fund weight

0.06%

HLIT weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Harmonic (HLIT) reports on Nov 2 after close (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±15.9%
avg realized: ±7.5%

Oct 28 '24Oct 28 '24confirmed±12.6%▼−25.10%×2.00

Feb 10 '25Feb 10 '25confirmed±14.5%▼−15.29%×1.06

Apr 28 '25Apr 28 '25confirmed±16.5%▲+1.29%×0.08

Q2 FY25Jul 28 '25confirmed±23.1%▼−4.60%×0.20

Q3 FY25Nov 3 '25confirmed±13.7%▼−2.25%×0.16

Feb 19 '26Feb 19 '26confirmed±15.4%▲+1.58%×0.10

Q1 FY25May 11 '26confirmed±15.0%▲+0.94%×0.06

Aug 12 '26Aug 12 '26confirmed±16.8%▲+9.00%×0.54

quarterimplied−30%0+30%realized×

Aug '26±16.8%▲+9.00%×0.54

Q1 FY25±15.0%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.08OI · 3 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

77+1%Nov 2019d913+6%

2,6680%Jan 1575d0.2610,1650%0.26

50+2%Apr 16166d0.095530%0.09

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2019d77+1%913+6%0.08

Jan 1575d2,6680%10,1650%0.26

Apr 16166d50+2%5530%0.09

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±16.8%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Customers 1

PLUS±3.9%×0.23

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 499dMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY25

1.89%as filednet margin · revenue +63.81% QoQ · −27.27% YoY

Revenue

$142M+63.81% QoQ

Gross profit

$77M+93.86% QoQ

54.17% margin

Operating income

$10M+1402.25% QoQ

6.90% margin

Pre-tax income

$9M+388.14% QoQ

Net income

$3M−6.17% QoQ

1.89% margin

Cost of revenue

$65M+38.45% QoQ

Operating expenses

$67M+66.03% QoQ

SG&A $37M

R&D $30M

Other operating $1M

Other expense

$1M

Tax

$6M+377.83% QoQ

Revenue$142M+63.81%

Gross profit

$77M+93.86%

54.17% margin

Operating income

$10M+1402.25%

6.90% margin

Pre-tax income

$9M+388.14%

Net income

$3M−6.17%

1.89% margin

Cost of revenue

$65M+38.45%

Operating expenses

$67M+66.03%

SG&A $37M

R&D $30M

Other operating $1M

Other expense

$1M

Tax$6M+377.83%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 26 '25 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×2.04· ±4.1% vs ±2.0% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±4.1%5 of 10×2.04

PPIproducer prices±3.5%4 of 10×1.74

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.3%11 of 19×1.17

GDPgross domestic product±2.2%14 of 19×1.10

CPIconsumer prices±2.0%7 of 10×1.01

FOMCrate decision±1.9%11 of 24×0.96

CPROFcorporate profits±1.2%10 of 12×0.61

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±2.0% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.0% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.48 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q4 FY25	—	-0.48	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 3 '25 · confirmed	0.02	—
Q2 FY25	Jul 28 '25 · confirmed	0.03	—
Q1 FY25	May 11 '26 · confirmed	0.07	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod