What move does the options market price into HCI's report?

Implied ±4.5%, either direction.

How often does HCI move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

HCINYSEFire, Marine & Casualty Insurance

HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

201.19

Closed18:04 ET

Open200.90Volume216,546Mkt cap$2.5BP/E8.40EPS23.94Div yield0.79%

Day200.75 – 203.8014%52-wk144.06 – 208.6488%

HCI

HCI Group, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±4.5%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±4.4%·×1.04·fair

192.56210.80

straddle ±6.3%

spot 201.68exp Nov 20ATM strike 200ATM straddle 14.90IV 43%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

after close · in 1 day

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+4.31%

vs ±6.3% implied · ×0.68

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 6 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

filed ties

13F top-10 QoQ

+4.59%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

289 managers

Top fund weight

0.06%

HCI weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

HCI (HCI) is expected to report on Nov 5 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±7.3%
avg realized: ±4.4%

Nov 7 '24Nov 7 '24confirmed±5.7%▲+2.80%×0.49

Feb 27 '25Feb 27 '25confirmed±7.9%▲+6.21%×0.79

May 8 '25May 8 '25confirmed±6.9%▲+7.92%×1.15

Aug 7 '25Aug 7 '25confirmed±7.4%▲+1.78%×0.24

Q3 FY25Nov 6 '25confirmed±8.0%▼−6.98%×0.87

Q1 FY26Feb 25 '26confirmed±8.8%▲+4.10%×0.46

May 6 '26May 6 '26confirmed±7.2%▼−0.71%×0.10

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed±6.3%▲+4.31%×0.68

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q2 FY26±6.3%▲+4.31%×0.68

May '26±7.2%▼−0.71%×0.10

Q1 FY26±8.8%▲+4.10%×0.46

Q3 FY25±8.0%▼−6.98%×0.87

Aug '25±7.4%▲+1.78%×0.24

May '25±6.9%▲+7.92%×1.15

2 older reports

Feb '25±7.9%▲+6.21%×0.79

Nov '24±5.7%▲+2.80%×0.49

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 28 close

1.24OI · 3 expiries · Oct 28 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

63+70%Nov 2016d51+11%

148+5%Dec 1844d0.053,1150%0.05

140%Mar 19135d0.002,948+20%0.00

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d63+70%51+11%1.24

Dec 1844d148+5%3,1150%0.05

Mar 19135d140%2,948+20%0.00

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±6.3%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

33.61%as filednet margin · revenue +1.55% QoQ · +11.15% YoY

Revenue$247M+1.55%

Pre-tax income$111M−3.82%

Net income$83M33.61%−2.52%

Tax$28M−7.48%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 18:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×1.18· ±1.9% vs ±1.6% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±1.9%3 of 10×1.18

NFPjobs report±1.9%5 of 10×1.17

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.8%11 of 19×1.14

FOMCrate decision±1.6%13 of 24×1.02

PPIproducer prices±1.4%7 of 10×0.90

CPROFcorporate profits±1.3%8 of 12×0.83

GDPgross domestic product±1.3%13 of 19×0.81

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.6% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.6% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 5.60 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	5.60	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 25 '26 · confirmed	5.45	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 6 '25 · confirmed	4.90	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod