What move does the options market price into Firefly Aerospace's report?

Implied ±9.1%, either direction.

How often does Firefly Aerospace move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 5 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

FLYNasdaqGuided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

17.02

pre 17.73 +4.20%

Pre-market05:37 ETdelayed

Open17.22Volume3.1MMkt cap$2.8BP/E3.44EPS5.15

Day17.22 – 17.73100%52-wk15.99 – 62.174%

FLY

Firefly Aerospace Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±9.1%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±7.9%·×1.14·fair

15.4718.56

straddle ±15.0%

spot 17.02exp Nov 13ATM strike 17ATM straddle 3.00IV 134%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 11

after close · in 7 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+0.68%

vs ±11.7% implied · ×0.06

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 11 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

filed ties

13F top-10 QoQ

+26.25%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

273 managers

Top fund weight

3.78%

FLY weight · NASA

N-PORTAug 31 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Firefly Aerospace (FLY) is expected to report on Nov 11 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

5 reports

1 of 5≥ implied

avg implied: ±12.8%
avg realized: ±7.9%

Q3 FY25Sep 22 '25confirmed±18.0%▼−15.31%×0.85

Nov 12 '25Nov 12 '25confirmed±13.0%▲+16.99%×1.31

Q1 FY26Mar 19 '26confirmed±9.3%▲+1.13%×0.12

May 4 '26May 4 '26confirmed±12.0%▼−5.54%×0.46

Q2 FY26Aug 11 '26confirmed±11.7%▲+0.68%×0.06

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q2 FY26±11.7%▲+0.68%×0.06

May '26±12.0%▼−5.54%×0.46

Q1 FY26±9.3%▲+1.13%×0.12

Nov '25±13.0%▲+16.99%×1.31

Q3 FY25±18.0%▼−15.31%×0.85

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 7 expiries · Oct 23 close

1.46OI · 7 expiries · Oct 23 closeP/C open interest · Nov 13 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

885+142%Nov 62d0.561,567+23%0.56

report · Nov 11 · after close · est.

1,119+18%Nov 139d767+120%

8,962−16%Nov 2016d0.3922,734+2%0.39

230+461%Nov 2723d1.04222+754%1.04

3 later expiries

80+220%Dec 1844d0.20406+145%0.20

8,615−1%Jan 1572d0.2238,354+7%0.22

2,511−3%Feb 19107d0.1615,992−4%0.16

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 62d885+142%1,567+23%0.56

report · Nov 11 · after close · est.

Nov 139d1,119+18%767+120%1.46

Nov 2016d8,962−16%22,734+2%0.39

Nov 2723d230+461%222+754%1.04

3 later expiries

Dec 1844d80+220%406+145%0.20

Jan 1572d8,615−1%38,354+7%0.22

Feb 19107d2,511−3%15,992−4%0.16

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±15.0%

Funds 4

NASA±0.6%

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−78.45%as filednet margin · revenue +45.51% QoQ · +656.85% YoY

Revenue$118M+45.51%

Gross profit$24M20.29%+36.73%

Operating income−$95M−80.89%+0.49%

Pre-tax income−$92M+4.40%

Net income−$92M−78.45%+4.51%

Cost of revenue$94M+47.92%

Operating expenses$119M+5.25%

Tax−$35,000−152.24%

Other income$3M+402.13%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 05:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.48· ±7.4% vs ±5.0% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±7.4%6 of 10×1.48

PPIproducer prices±6.2%4 of 10×1.25

GDPgross domestic product±5.3%6 of 12×1.07

PCEpersonal income & outlays±4.9%5 of 12×0.99

CPROFcorporate profits±4.4%3 of 9×0.89

FOMCrate decision±3.6%2 of 9×0.72

CPIconsumer prices±3.2%6 of 10×0.63

Bar = avg |move| to ±8% · tick = ±5.0% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±5.0% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.57 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 11 '26 · confirmed	-0.57	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 19 '26 · confirmed	-0.61	—
Q3 FY25	Sep 22 '25 · confirmed	-1.50	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod