What move does the options market price into FutureFuel's report?

Implied ±12.4%, either direction.

How often does FutureFuel move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

FFNYSEIndustrial Organic Chemicals

FutureFuel Corp. (FF) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

5.69

−0.09 · −1.49%

Regular session11:39 ET

Open5.78Volume457,706Mkt cap$253.5MEPS-0.62Div yield2.42%

Day5.65 – 5.7833%52-wk2.98 – 6.9868%

FutureFuel Corp.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±12.4%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±11.1%·×1.12·fair

5.066.50

straddle ±16.5%

spot 5.78exp Nov 20ATM strike 5ATM straddle 1.12IV 97%

Nov 2 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 9

after close · in 6 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+23.45%

vs ±10.2% implied · ×2.31

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 10 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

48.00%

of FF revenue · Three chemical customers

customerFF 10-K

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+10.65%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26126d lag

104 managers

Top fund weight

0.00%

FF weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

FutureFuel (FF) is expected to report on Nov 9 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±20.9%
avg realized: ±11.1%

Nov 8 '24Nov 8 '24confirmed±12.4%▼−17.90%×1.44

Mar 28 '25Mar 28 '25confirmed±18.6%▼−6.25%×0.34

May 12 '25May 12 '25confirmed±32.6%▲+3.45%×0.11

Aug 11 '25Aug 11 '25confirmed±31.1%▼−3.99%×0.13

Q3 FY25Nov 10 '25confirmed±32.6%▼−11.34%×0.35

Q1 FY26Mar 16 '26confirmed±19.2%▼−6.79%×0.35

May 11 '26May 11 '26confirmed±10.6%▼−15.91%×1.50

Q2 FY26Aug 10 '26confirmed±10.2%▲+23.45%×2.31

quarterimplied−35%0+35%realized×

Q2 FY26±10.2%▲+23.45%×2.31

May '26±10.6%▼−15.91%×1.50

Q1 FY26±19.2%▼−6.79%×0.35

Q3 FY25±32.6%▼−11.34%×0.35

Aug '25±31.1%▼−3.99%×0.13

May '25±32.6%▲+3.45%×0.11

2 older reports

Mar '25±18.6%▼−6.25%×0.34

Nov '24±12.4%▼−17.90%×1.44

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 2 expiries · Nov 2 close

0.17OI · 2 expiries · Nov 2 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

1,2420%Nov 2017d7,4480%

2,7230%Feb 19108d0.446,250+9%0.44

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2017d1,2420%7,4480%0.17

Feb 19108d2,7230%6,250+9%0.44

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±16.5%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

14.44%as filednet margin · revenue +146.39% QoQ · +120.69% YoY

Revenue

$79M+146.39% QoQ

Gross profit

$15M+194.73% QoQ

19.08% margin

Operating income

$11M+153.98% QoQ

14.29% margin

Pre-tax income

$11M+155.60% QoQ

Net income

$11M+155.24% QoQ

14.44% margin

Cost of revenue

$64M+33.24% QoQ

Operating expenses

$4M−24.33% QoQ

SG&A $3M

R&D $692,000

Tax

$69,000+762.50% QoQ

Other income

$188,000−30.11% QoQ

Revenue$79M+146.39%

Gross profit

$15M+194.73%

19.08% margin

Operating income

$11M+153.98%

14.29% margin

Pre-tax income

$11M+155.60%

Net income

$11M+155.24%

14.44% margin

Cost of revenue

$64M+33.24%

Operating expenses

$4M−24.33%

SG&A $3M

R&D $692,000

Other income$188,000−30.11%

Tax$69,000+762.50%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 2 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 11:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×1.80· ±3.5% vs ±1.9% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±3.5%6 of 10×1.80

FOMCrate decision±2.4%12 of 24×1.25

PPIproducer prices±2.4%1 of 10×1.23

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.2%10 of 19×1.14

GDPgross domestic product±2.1%8 of 19×1.10

NFPjobs report±1.9%6 of 10×0.96

CPROFcorporate profits±1.5%5 of 12×0.76

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±1.9% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.9% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.25 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 10 '26 · confirmed	0.25	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 16 '26 · confirmed	-0.47	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 10 '25 · confirmed	-0.21	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod