What move does the options market price into Encore Capital's report?

Implied ±10.5%, either direction.

How often does Encore Capital move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

ECPGNasdaqShort-Term Business Credit Institutions

Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

100.57

+0.74 · +0.74%

Regular session11:35 ET

Open102.36Volume188,095Mkt cap$2.1BP/E7.43EPS13.53

Day100.58 – 102.360%52-wk41.06 – 105.9892%

ECPG

Encore Capital Group Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±10.5%implied · straddle

89.33110.33

spot 99.83exp Nov 20ATM strike 100ATM straddle 12.35IV 72%

Nov 3 closethin chain

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Today

after close

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+5.60%

vs ±10.5% implied · ×0.53

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 5 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

filed ties

13F top-10 QoQ

+3.39%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

287 managers

Top fund weight

0.06%

ECPG weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Encore Capital (ECPG) is expected to report on Nov 4 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±9.5%
avg realized: ±9.7%

Nov 6 '24Nov 6 '24confirmed±8.7%▲+0.06%×0.01

Feb 26 '25Feb 26 '25confirmed±9.4%▼−21.88%×2.34

May 7 '25May 7 '25confirmed±11.8%▲+23.85%×2.03

Aug 6 '25Aug 6 '25confirmed±7.6%▲+5.37%×0.71

Nov 5 '25Nov 5 '25confirmed±10.4%▲+10.46%×1.01

Q1 FY26Feb 25 '26confirmed±9.5%▲+8.06%×0.85

May 6 '26May 6 '26confirmed±8.0%▼−2.40%×0.30

Q2 FY26Aug 5 '26confirmed±10.5%▲+5.60%×0.53

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q2 FY26±10.5%▲+5.60%×0.53

May '26±8.0%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.32OI · 3 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

290%Nov 2016d900%

1,0570%Dec 1844d2.294620%2.29

5040%Mar 19135d10.72470%10.72

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d290%900%0.32

Dec 1844d1,0570%4620%2.29

Mar 19135d5040%470%10.72

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±10.5%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

15.21%as filednet margin · revenue −11.50% QoQ · +8.86% YoY

Revenue

$421M−11.50% QoQ

Gross profit

$301M−16.54% QoQ

71.58% margin

Operating income

$187M+1.58% QoQ

44.42% margin

Pre-tax income

$83M−25.85% QoQ

Net income

$64M−25.79% QoQ

15.21% margin

Cost of revenue

$120M+4.40% QoQ

Operating expenses

$114M−35.40% QoQ

SG&A $76M

Other operating $32M

Depreciation $7M

Other expense

$104M

Tax

$19M−26.05% QoQ

Revenue$421M−11.50%

Gross profit

$301M−16.54%

71.58% margin

Operating income

$187M+1.58%

44.42% margin

Pre-tax income

$83M−25.85%

Net income

$64M−25.79%

15.21% margin

Cost of revenue

$120M+4.40%

Operating expenses

$114M−35.40%

SG&A $76M

Other operating $32M

Depreciation $7M

Other expense

$104M

Tax$19M−26.05%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 11:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

GDP ×1.23· ±2.2% vs ±1.8% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

GDPgross domestic product±2.2%10 of 19×1.23

PPIproducer prices±2.0%7 of 10×1.12

FOMCrate decision±1.7%10 of 24×0.94

NFPjobs report±1.7%6 of 10×0.93

CPIconsumer prices±1.4%5 of 10×0.80

CPROFcorporate profits±1.3%7 of 12×0.71

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.1%8 of 19×0.63

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.8% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.8% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.81 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 5 '26 · confirmed	2.81	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 25 '26 · confirmed	3.86	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod