What move does the options market price into HF Sinclair's report?

Implied ±22.1%, either direction · provisional.

DINONYSEPipe Lines (No Natural Gas)

HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

115.20

Closed19:18 ET

Open112.51Volume2.2MMkt cap$19.7BP/E5.84EPS19.72Div yield1.76%

Day112.51 – 115.6286%52-wk44.66 – 129.3783%

DINO

HF Sinclair Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±22.1%implied · straddle

89.58140.42

spot 115.00exp Mar 19ATM strike 115ATM straddle 29.90IV 53%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 17

before open · in 109 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−1.97%

vs ±10.5% implied · ×0.19

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 28 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

2dOKE · supplierOneok net income $1,350 million, diluted EPS $2.13 for quarter ended Sept 30, 2026

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+5.20%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

686 managers

Top fund weight

0.38%

DINO weight · SCHD

N-PORTAug 31 '26

5 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

HF Sinclair (DINO) is expected to report on Feb 17 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

2 reports

—≥ implied

Q2 FY26Jul 28 '26confirmed—▼−1.63%—

Q3 FY26Oct 28 '26confirmed±10.5%▼−1.97%×0.19

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q3 FY26±10.5%▼−1.97%×0.19

Q2 FY26—−1.63%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 28 close

1.12OI · 4 expiries · Oct 28 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

4,830+11%Nov 2020d0.647,495+23%0.64

3,529+1%Dec 1848d0.399,015+7%0.39

7,240+1%Jan 1576d0.5612,9860%0.56

report · Feb 17 · before open · est.

1,601+1%Mar 19139d1,429−11%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2020d4,830+11%7,495+23%0.64

Dec 1848d3,529+1%9,015+7%0.39

Jan 1576d7,240+1%12,9860%0.56

report · Feb 17 · before open · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±22.1%

Funds 4

SCHD±0.1%

MDY±0.1%

REVS±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod 1 more fund Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

18.58%as filednet margin · revenue +4.49% QoQ · +49.73% YoY

Revenue

$10.9B+4.49% QoQ

Gross profit

$3.2B+100.38% QoQ

29.03% margin

Operating income

$2.7B+128.77% QoQ

24.61% margin

Pre-tax income

$2.6B+126.02% QoQ

Net income

$2.0B+125.87% QoQ

18.58% margin

Cost of revenue

$7.7B−12.61% QoQ

Operating expenses

$480M+18.52% QoQ

Depreciation $278M

SG&A $146M

Other operating $56M

Other expense

$23M

Tax

$632M+126.52% QoQ

Revenue$10.9B+4.49%

Gross profit

$3.2B+100.38%

29.03% margin

Operating income

$2.7B+128.77%

24.61% margin

Pre-tax income

$2.6B+126.02%

Net income

$2.0B+125.87%

18.58% margin

Cost of revenue

$7.7B−12.61%

Operating expenses

$480M+18.52%

Depreciation $278M

SG&A $146M

Other operating $56M

Other expense

$23M

Tax$632M+126.52%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 19:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.19· ±2.0% vs ±1.7% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±2.0%5 of 11×1.19

CPIconsumer prices±1.8%7 of 11×1.08

FOMCrate decision±1.7%14 of 25×0.99

GDPgross domestic product±1.6%13 of 19×0.96

NFPjobs report±1.6%3 of 10×0.95

CPROFcorporate profits±1.6%9 of 12×0.94

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.4%10 of 19×0.85

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.7% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.7% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 11.38 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 28 '26 · confirmed	11.38	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 28 '26 · confirmed	4.93	—
Q1 FY26	—	3.56	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod