What move does the options market price into Constellium's report?

Implied ±20.6%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Constellium move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 7 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

CSTMNYSESecondary Smelting & Refining of Nonferrous Metals

Constellium SE (CSTM) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

22.71

−0.32 · −1.38%

post 23.08 +1.62%

Closed16:03 ET

Open23.37Volume1.9MMkt cap$3.1BP/E5.47EPS4.22

Day22.31 – 23.3773%52-wk14.62 – 36.9938%

CSTM

Constellium SE

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±20.6%implied · straddle

18.0327.39

spot 22.71exp Feb 19ATM strike 23ATM straddle 5.50IV 56%

Nov 4 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 17

before open · in 104 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−0.53%

vs ±9.2% implied · ×0.06

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 28 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

filed ties

13F top-10 QoQ

+2.53%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

385 managers

Top fund weight

0.13%

CSTM weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Constellium (CSTM) is expected to report on Feb 17 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 7≥ implied

avg implied: ±10.8%
avg realized: ±6.1%

Feb 20 '25Feb 20 '25confirmed±10.3%▲+14.22%×1.38

Apr 30 '25Apr 30 '25confirmed±16.0%▲+5.42%×0.34

Jul 29 '25Jul 29 '25confirmed±10.5%▲+5.38%×0.51

Oct 29 '25Oct 29 '25confirmed±10.2%▼−3.78%×0.37

Feb 18 '26Feb 18 '26confirmed±8.5%▲+9.53%×1.13

Q1 FY26Apr 29 '26confirmed±11.1%▲+3.70%×0.33

Q2 FY26Jul 29 '26confirmed—▼−4.99%—

Q3 FY26Oct 28 '26confirmed±9.2%▼−0.53%×0.06

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q3 FY26±9.2%▼−0.53%×0.06

Q2 FY26—▼−4.99%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Nov 3 close

3.79OI · 4 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

2,662−2%Nov 2015d0.308,9610%0.30

55+17%Dec 1843d1.0453+4%1.04

6,163+1%Jan 1571d0.4713,1130%0.47

report · Feb 17 · before open · est.

1,1790%Feb 19106d311+4%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2015d2,662−2%8,9610%0.30

Dec 1843d55+17%53+4%1.04

Jan 1571d6,163+1%13,1130%0.47

report · Feb 17 · before open · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±20.6%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

4.51%as filednet margin · revenue −3.97% QoQ · +21.84% YoY

Revenue

$2.6B−3.97% QoQ

Gross profit

$367M−23.54% QoQ

13.91% margin

Operating income

$189M−32.74% QoQ

7.16% margin

Pre-tax income

$160M−25.23% QoQ

Net income

$119M−19.59% QoQ

4.51% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.3B+0.18% QoQ

Operating expenses

$178M−10.55% QoQ

SG&A $84M

Depreciation $82M

R&D $12M

Other expense

$29M

Tax

$41M−37.88% QoQ

Revenue$2.6B−3.97%

Gross profit

$367M−23.54%

13.91% margin

Operating income

$189M−32.74%

7.16% margin

Pre-tax income

$160M−25.23%

Net income

$119M−19.59%

4.51% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.3B+0.18%

Operating expenses

$178M−10.55%

SG&A $84M

Depreciation $82M

R&D $12M

Other expense

$29M

Tax$41M−37.88%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.39· ±2.9% vs ±2.1% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±2.9%5 of 10×1.39

NFPjobs report±2.8%6 of 10×1.34

FOMCrate decision±2.3%14 of 24×1.07

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.2%8 of 19×1.06

CPIconsumer prices±1.7%5 of 10×0.79

GDPgross domestic product±1.5%11 of 19×0.73

CPROFcorporate profits±1.3%8 of 12×0.62

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±2.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.84 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 28 '26 · confirmed	0.84	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 29 '26 · confirmed	1.04	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 29 '26 · confirmed	1.42	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod