What move does the options market price into Cerence's report?

Implied ±11.9%, either direction.

How often does Cerence move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

CRNCNasdaqServices-Prepackaged Software

Cerence Inc. (CRNC) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

8.28

Closed16:00 ET

Open8.14Volume632,268Mkt cap$374.1MEPS-0.35

Day8.10 – 8.3572%52-wk5.85 – 13.2833%

CRNC

Cerence Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±11.9%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±24.8%·×0.48·cheap

7.299.25

straddle ±16.4%

spot 8.27exp Nov 20ATM strike 8ATM straddle 1.60IV 113%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 18

after close · in 14 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+1.39%

vs ±15.2% implied · ×0.09

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 6 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

50.00%

of CRNC revenue · Automobile OEMs

customerCRNC 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+5.23%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

200 managers

Top fund weight

0.02%

CRNC weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Cerence (CRNC) is expected to report on Nov 18 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±17.5%
avg realized: ±24.8%

Oct 7 '24Oct 7 '24confirmed±14.8%▼−1.32%×0.09

Nov 21 '24Nov 21 '24confirmed±20.3%▲+106.74%×5.26

Feb 6 '25Feb 6 '25confirmed±21.4%▲+13.66%×0.64

May 7 '25May 7 '25confirmed±17.6%▼−12.20%×0.69

Nov 19 '25Nov 19 '25confirmed±12.6%▲+27.53%×2.19

Q1 FY26Feb 4 '26confirmed±20.4%▼−29.04%×1.43

Q2 FY26May 7 '26confirmed±17.4%▼−6.36%×0.37

Q3 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed±15.2%▲+1.39%×0.09

quarterimplied−110%0+110%realized×

Q3 FY26±15.2%▲+1.39%×0.09

Q2 FY26±17.4%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.38OI · 4 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

1,7030%Nov 2016d4,426−2%

1,177+1%Dec 1844d1.63722+3%1.63

1,7970%Jan 1572d0.247,4160%0.24

524+2%Feb 19107d1.51346−2%1.51

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d1,7030%4,426−2%0.38

Dec 1844d1,177+1%722+3%1.63

Jan 1572d1,7970%7,4160%0.24

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±16.4%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

2.20%as filednet margin · revenue +8.40% QoQ · +11.81% YoY

Revenue

$70M+8.40% QoQ

Gross profit

$53M+11.88% QoQ

76.04% margin

Operating income

$2M+176.72% QoQ

2.69% margin

Pre-tax income

$2M+151.98% QoQ

Net income

$2M−8.37% QoQ

2.20% margin

Cost of revenue

$17M−1.32% QoQ

Operating expenses

$51M+2.61% QoQ

R&D $29M

SG&A $15M

Marketing $6M

Other operating $1M

Other expense

$327,000

Revenue$70M+8.40%

Gross profit

$53M+11.88%

76.04% margin

Operating income

$2M+176.72%

2.69% margin

Pre-tax income

$2M+151.98%

Net income

$2M−8.37%

2.20% margin

Cost of revenue

$17M−1.32%

Operating expenses

$51M+2.61%

R&D $29M

SG&A $15M

Marketing $6M

Other expense

$327,000

Tax$0+100.00%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×0.85· ±3.7% vs ±4.4% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±3.7%3 of 10×0.85

PPIproducer prices±3.0%6 of 11×0.69

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.9%8 of 20×0.67

GDPgross domestic product±2.8%10 of 20×0.65

CPROFcorporate profits±2.6%7 of 12×0.60

FOMCrate decision±2.2%11 of 25×0.52

CPIconsumer prices±1.8%7 of 11×0.41

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±4.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±4.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.03 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	0.03	—
Q2 FY26	May 7 '26 · confirmed	0.04	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 4 '26 · confirmed	-0.12	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod