What move does the options market price into Calumet's report?

Implied ±10.0%, either direction.

How often does Calumet move more than the options market prices?

0 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

CLMTNasdaqPetroleum Refining

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

47.31

pre 47.44 +1.52%

Pre-market16:29 ETdelayed

Open47.20Volume1.3MMkt cap$4.1BEPS-0.39

Day46.46 – 47.4797%52-wk17.85 – 59.8770%

CLMT

Calumet, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±10.0%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±4.4%·×2.30·rich

42.5852.08

straddle ±13.5%

spot 47.33exp Nov 20ATM strike 45ATM straddle 7.50IV 91%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 6

before open · in 2 days

confirmedQ3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−5.73%

vs ±11.2% implied · ×0.51

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 7 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−1.96%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

195 managers

Top fund weight

0.08%

CLMT weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Calumet (CLMT) reports on Nov 6 before open (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

0 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±8.7%
avg realized: ±4.4%

May 9 '25May 9 '25confirmed±7.5%▲+3.79%×0.51

Aug 8 '25Aug 8 '25confirmed±7.6%▼−3.62%×0.48

Nov 7 '25Nov 7 '25confirmed±8.5%▼−1.64%×0.19

Jan 5 '26Jan 5 '26confirmed±5.9%▲+0.36%×0.06

Q1 FY26Feb 27 '26confirmed±13.0%▼−10.79%×0.83

May 8 '26May 8 '26confirmed±7.8%▼−7.31%×0.94

Q2 FY26Aug 7 '26confirmed±11.2%▼−5.73%×0.51

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q2 FY26±11.2%▼−5.73%×0.51

May '26±7.8%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 5 expiries · Oct 28 close

0.64OI · 5 expiries · Oct 28 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

13,221+2%Nov 2016d20,658+5%

606+12%Dec 1844d0.381,598+85%0.38

27,8680%Jan 1572d0.8831,6070%0.88

1,021+2%Feb 19107d0.185,567+2%0.18

2,972+4%Mar 19135d0.1717,860+4%0.17

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d13,221+2%20,658+5%0.64

Dec 1844d606+12%1,598+85%0.38

Jan 1572d27,8680%31,6070%0.88

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±13.5%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Suppliers 1

EPD±1.1%×0.08

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 500dMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−6.64%as filednet margin · revenue +40.34% QoQ · +40.77% YoY

Revenue$1.4B+40.34%

Gross profit$18M1.27%+120.91%

Operating income−$40M−2.77%+76.65%

Pre-tax income−$117M+65.33%

Net income−$96M−6.64%+69.75%

Cost of revenue$1.4B+27.71%

Operating expenses$58M−30.43%

Tax−$21M−1.92%

Other expense−$77M+53.69%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.18· ±3.1% vs ±2.6% · 18 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±3.1%11 of 18×1.18

NFPjobs report±3.0%3 of 10×1.17

CPROFcorporate profits±2.5%9 of 12×0.95

PPIproducer prices±2.4%7 of 10×0.94

GDPgross domestic product±2.3%11 of 19×0.87

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.2%7 of 19×0.84

CPIconsumer prices±1.8%7 of 10×0.70

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±2.6% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.6% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -1.09 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 7 '26 · confirmed	-1.09	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 27 '26 · confirmed	-3.64	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod