What move does the options market price into Century Aluminum's report?

Implied ±8.0%, either direction.

How often does Century Aluminum move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

CENXNasdaqPrimary Production of Aluminum

Century Aluminum Co (CENX) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

32.78

−0.55 · −1.65%

post 32.78 0.00%

After hours16:00 ETdelayed

Open34.61Volume1.2MMkt cap$3.3BP/E5.37EPS6.10

Day32.48 – 34.6114%52-wk25.40 – 70.4316%

CENX

Century Aluminum Co

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±8.0%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±6.7%·×1.18·rich

30.6735.99

straddle ±11.6%

spot 33.33exp Nov 20ATM strike 32.5ATM straddle 4.55IV 79%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 12

after close · in 8 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+11.49%

vs ±11.0% implied · ×1.05

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 6 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Supply chain

13F top-10 QoQ

+4.22%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

415 managers

Top fund weight

0.10%

CENX weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Century Aluminum (CENX) is expected to report on Nov 12 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±10.1%
avg realized: ±6.7%

Aug 8 '24Aug 8 '24confirmed±12.6%▼−2.47%×0.20

Nov 4 '24Nov 4 '24confirmed±12.7%▲+20.01%×1.58

Feb 20 '25Feb 20 '25confirmed±8.4%▼−13.27%×1.59

May 7 '25May 7 '25confirmed±8.4%▼−1.96%×0.23

Aug 7 '25Aug 7 '25confirmed±10.4%▲+1.63%×0.16

Feb 19 '26Feb 19 '26confirmed±7.5%▲+0.27%×0.04

Q1 FY26May 7 '26confirmed±9.9%▼−2.76%×0.28

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed±11.0%▲+11.49%×1.05

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q2 FY26±11.0%▲+11.49%×1.05

Q1 FY26±9.9%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Nov 2 close

0.22OI · 4 expiries · Nov 2 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

4,052+6%Nov 2016d18,467+7%

2,833+4%Dec 1844d0.2213,158+4%0.22

5,235+11%Jan 1572d0.559,496+8%0.55

5,131+96%Mar 19135d5.60916+28%5.60

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d4,052+6%18,467+7%0.22

Dec 1844d2,833+4%13,158+4%0.22

Jan 1572d5,235+11%9,496+8%0.55

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±11.6%

Funds 4

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

32.42%as filednet margin · revenue +15.85% QoQ · +19.74% YoY

Revenue

$752M+15.85% QoQ

Gross profit

$228M+91.84% QoQ

30.30% margin

Operating income

$212M−43.42% QoQ

28.13% margin

Pre-tax income

$257M−21.87% QoQ

Net income

$244M−25.44% QoQ

32.42% margin

Cost of revenue

$524M−1.17% QoQ

Operating expenses

$16M

Tax

$12M+572.22% QoQ

Other income

$5M+106.65% QoQ

Revenue$752M+15.85%

Gross profit

$228M+91.84%

30.30% margin

Operating income

$212M−43.42%

28.13% margin

Pre-tax income

$257M−21.87%

Net income

$244M−25.44%

32.42% margin

Cost of revenue

$524M−1.17%

Operating expenses

$16M

Other income$5M+106.65%

Tax$12M+572.22%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×1.38· ±4.2% vs ±3.0% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±4.2%5 of 10×1.38

PPIproducer prices±4.0%3 of 10×1.34

NFPjobs report±4.0%5 of 10×1.31

FOMCrate decision±3.3%10 of 24×1.08

GDPgross domestic product±2.2%10 of 19×0.72

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.1%9 of 19×0.71

CPROFcorporate profits±2.0%8 of 12×0.66

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±3.0% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±3.0% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.39 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	2.39	—
Q1 FY26	May 7 '26 · confirmed	3.23	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod