What move does the options market price into Cheesecake Factory's report?

Implied ±4.7%, either direction.

How often does Cheesecake Factory move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

CAKENasdaqRetail-Eating Places

Cheesecake Factory Inc (CAKE) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

110.79

−4.60 · −3.99%

post 110.45 −0.31%

Closed19:38 ET

Open115.13Volume1.9MMkt cap$5.8BP/E24.76EPS4.46Div yield1.01%

Day110.05 – 116.946%52-wk42.54 – 118.6389%

CAKE

Cheesecake Factory Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±4.7%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±4.6%·×1.00·fair

105.56115.86

straddle ±15.9%

spot 110.71exp Feb 19ATM strike 110ATM straddle 20.75IV 44%

Nov 5 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 17

after close · in 103 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−2.53%

vs ±9.7% implied · ×0.26

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 27 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Supply chain

13F top-10 QoQ

+9.54%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26129d lag

346 managers

Top fund weight

0.12%

CAKE weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) is expected to report on Feb 17 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±8.4%
avg realized: ±4.6%

Feb 19 '25Feb 19 '25confirmed±7.0%▲+1.25%×0.18

Apr 30 '25Apr 30 '25confirmed±8.3%▼−4.39%×0.53

Jul 29 '25Jul 29 '25confirmed±7.6%▲+5.21%×0.69

Oct 28 '25Oct 28 '25confirmed±9.5%▼−7.25%×0.76

Feb 18 '26Feb 18 '26confirmed±6.4%▼−2.58%×0.40

Q1 FY26Apr 29 '26confirmed±10.2%▲+0.32%×0.03

Q2 FY26Jul 28 '26confirmed±8.4%▲+13.63%×1.63

Q3 FY26Oct 27 '26confirmed±9.7%▼−2.53%×0.26

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q3 FY26±9.7%▼−2.53%×0.26

Q2 FY26±8.4%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 5 expiries · Nov 5 close

0.99OI · 5 expiries · Nov 5 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

4,6710%Nov 2014d1.094,2660%1.09

323+2%Dec 1842d0.32998+19%0.32

5,1510%Jan 1570d1.204,286+1%1.20

report · Feb 17 · after close · est.

308+5%Feb 19105d3120%

288+2%Apr 16161d2.15134−4%2.15

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2014d4,6710%4,2660%1.09

Dec 1842d323+2%998+19%0.32

Jan 1570d5,1510%4,286+1%1.20

report · Feb 17 · after close · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±15.9%

Funds 4

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

5.93%as filednet margin · revenue +0.37% QoQ · +13.91% YoY

Revenue

$1.0B+0.37% QoQ

Gross profit

$674M−0.66% QoQ

65.19% margin

Operating income

$75M−4.75% QoQ

7.25% margin

Pre-tax income

$73M−4.55% QoQ

Net income

$61M−10.37% QoQ

5.93% margin

Cost of revenue

$360M+2.36% QoQ

Operating expenses

$599M−0.12% QoQ

SG&A $352M

Other operating $219M

Depreciation $29M

Other expense

$1M

Tax

$12M+42.26% QoQ

Revenue$1.0B+0.37%

Gross profit

$674M−0.66%

65.19% margin

Operating income

$75M−4.75%

7.25% margin

Pre-tax income

$73M−4.55%

Net income

$61M−10.37%

5.93% margin

Cost of revenue

$360M+2.36%

Operating expenses

$599M−0.12%

SG&A $352M

Other operating $219M

Depreciation $29M

Other expense

$1M

Tax$12M+42.26%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 29 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 5 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 19:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.68· ±2.9% vs ±1.8% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±2.9%4 of 11×1.68

FOMCrate decision±2.7%12 of 24×1.53

GDPgross domestic product±2.0%14 of 20×1.13

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.8%11 of 20×1.00

CPIconsumer prices±1.7%6 of 11×0.98

NFPjobs report±1.5%6 of 10×0.84

CPROFcorporate profits±1.5%7 of 12×0.83

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.8% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.8% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.19 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 27 '26 · confirmed	1.19	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 28 '26 · confirmed	1.41	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 29 '26 · confirmed	1.02	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod