What move does the options market price into Bumble's report?

Implied ±1.1%, either direction.

How often does Bumble move more than the options market prices?

5 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

BMBLNasdaqServices-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc.

Bumble Inc. (BMBL) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

5.98

0.00 · +0.08%

Regular session14:37 ET

Open5.97Volume3.0MMkt cap$790.5MEPS-4.12

Day5.97 – 5.9933%52-wk2.44 – 6.0099%

BMBL

Bumble Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±1.1%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±19.5%·×0.06·cheap

5.906.04

straddle ±1.4%

spot 5.97exp Nov 20ATM strike 6ATM straddle 0.10IV 9%

Nov 2 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 4

after close · in 1 day

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−6.41%

vs ±14.1% implied · ×0.46

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 5 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

filed ties

13F top-10 QoQ

−5.37%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26126d lag

193 managers

Top fund weight

0.01%

BMBL weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Bumble (BMBL) is expected to report on Nov 4 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

5 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±15.3%
avg realized: ±19.5%

Nov 6 '24Nov 6 '24confirmed±11.4%▼−0.38%×0.03

Feb 18 '25Feb 18 '25confirmed±13.1%▼−30.31%×2.31

May 7 '25May 7 '25confirmed±13.1%▲+26.65%×2.03

Aug 6 '25Aug 6 '25confirmed±22.1%▼−15.95%×0.72

Q3 FY25Nov 5 '25confirmed±17.0%▼−21.77%×1.28

Q1 FY26Mar 11 '26confirmed±17.0%▲+34.15%×2.01

May 5 '26May 5 '26confirmed±15.0%▼−20.05%×1.34

Q2 FY26Aug 5 '26confirmed±14.1%▼−6.41%×0.46

quarterimplied−35%0+35%realized×

Q2 FY26±14.1%▼−6.41%×0.46

May '26±15.0%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Nov 2 close

0.70OI · 4 expiries · Nov 2 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

5,530+9%Nov 2017d7,9480%

1,6630%Dec 1845d1.878880%1.87

12,8970%Jan 1573d0.3833,9130%0.38

2,0090%Apr 16164d0.663,0630%0.66

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2017d5,530+9%7,9480%0.70

Dec 1845d1,6630%8880%1.87

Jan 1573d12,8970%33,9130%0.38

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±1.4%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−60.75%as filednet margin · revenue −0.87% QoQ · −15.19% YoY

Revenue$211M−0.87%

Gross profit$157M74.35%−0.65%

Operating income−$112M−53.20%−271.65%

Pre-tax income−$130M−303.53%

Net income−$128M−60.75%−343.04%

Cost of revenue$54M−1.51%

Operating expenses$269M+190.93%

Tax−$2M−121.39%

Other expense−$18M−1404.60%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 2 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 14:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.32· ±3.5% vs ±2.7% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±3.5%6 of 10×1.32

PCEpersonal income & outlays±3.0%7 of 19×1.11

NFPjobs report±2.8%4 of 10×1.04

CPIconsumer prices±2.4%5 of 10×0.91

CPROFcorporate profits±2.3%6 of 12×0.86

GDPgross domestic product±2.3%8 of 19×0.85

FOMCrate decision±2.0%9 of 24×0.76

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±2.7% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.7% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.84 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 5 '26 · confirmed	-0.84	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 11 '26 · confirmed	0.34	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 5 '25 · confirmed	0.33	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod