What move does the options market price into Bakkt's report?

Implied ±10.2%, either direction.

How often does Bakkt move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 5 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

BKKTNYSEFinance Services

Bakkt, Inc. (BKKT) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

4.68

+0.28 · +6.42%

post 4.67 −0.27%

Closed17:29 ET

Open4.38Volume917,726Mkt cap$210.5MEPS-2.80

Day4.38 – 4.6993%52-wk4.34 – 25.162%

BKKT

Bakkt, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±10.2%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±11.1%·×0.91·fair

4.195.15

straddle ±15.5%

spot 4.67exp Nov 13ATM strike 4.5ATM straddle 0.85IV 139%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 9

after close · in 5 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−3.66%

vs ±13.8% implied · ×0.27

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 10 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

17.00%

of BKKT revenue · Public Platform

customerBKKT 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+71.60%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

103 managers

Top fund weight

0.01%

BKKT weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Bakkt (BKKT) is expected to report on Nov 9 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 5≥ implied

avg implied: ±12.0%
avg realized: ±7.9%

Jul 28 '25Jul 28 '25confirmed—▼−41.76%—

Aug 11 '25Aug 11 '25confirmed—▼−5.44%—

Q3 FY25Nov 10 '25confirmed—▲+2.43%—

Nov 12 '25Nov 12 '25confirmed±10.1%▲+0.65%×0.06

Jan 20 '26Jan 20 '26confirmed±13.5%▼−24.52%×1.82

Q1 FY26Mar 17 '26confirmed±10.8%▼−0.10%×0.01

May 11 '26May 11 '26confirmed±11.6%▼−10.58%×0.91

Q2 FY26Aug 10 '26confirmed±13.8%▼−3.66%×0.27

quarterimplied−45%0+45%realized×

Q2 FY26±13.8%▼−3.66%×0.27

May '26±11.6%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 7 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.13OI · 7 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 13 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

790%Nov 62d0.411950%0.41

report · Nov 9 · after close · est.

66+3%Nov 139d5130%

128+1%Nov 2016d0.043,3840%0.04

13+8%Nov 2723d0.30440%0.30

3 later expiries

4890%Dec 1844d0.076,6240%0.07

4380%Jan 1572d0.06

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 62d790%1950%0.41

report · Nov 9 · after close · est.

Nov 139d66+3%5130%0.13

Nov 2016d128+1%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±15.5%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ1 FY26

−4.78%as filednet margin · revenue −64.31% QoQ · −77.14% YoY

Revenue$244M−64.31%

Gross profit$237M97.29%−63.60%

Operating income−$17M−6.95%+80.22%

Pre-tax income−$11M+81.59%

Net income−$12M−4.78%+87.76%

Cost of revenue$7M−78.91%

Operating expenses$254M−65.49%

Tax$12,000+109.02%

Other income$6M−76.63%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Mar 31 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 17:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×0.94· ±5.8% vs ±6.2% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±5.8%5 of 24×0.94

PPIproducer prices±5.7%4 of 10×0.91

NFPjobs report±5.2%4 of 10×0.83

PCEpersonal income & outlays±4.7%7 of 19×0.74

CPROFcorporate profits±4.0%4 of 12×0.63

GDPgross domestic product±3.8%7 of 19×0.60

CPIconsumer prices±3.3%6 of 10×0.53

Bar = avg |move| to ±7% · tick = ±6.2% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±6.2% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.94 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 10 '26 · confirmed	1.94	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 17 '26 · confirmed	-0.41	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 10 '25 · confirmed	-1.15	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod