What move does the options market price into AXT's report?

Implied ±30.2%, either direction · provisional.

AXTINasdaqSemiconductors & Related Devices

AXT Inc (AXTI) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

45.54

−5.79 · −11.28%

Regular session11:35 ET

Open53.10Volume11.3MMkt cap$3.4BP/E830.26

Day45.05 – 53.696%52-wk7.80 – 143.1628%

AXTI

AXT Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±30.2%implied · straddle

35.8266.84

spot 51.33exp Jan 15ATM strike 50ATM straddle 18.25IV 102%

Nov 3 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 8

before open · in 65 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−9.56%

vs ±11.3% implied · ×0.85

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 29 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

filed ties

13F top-10 QoQ

+135.57%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

260 managers

Top fund weight

0.14%

AXTI weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

AXT (AXTI) is expected to report on Jan 8 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

2 reports

—≥ implied

Q2 FY26Jul 30 '26confirmed—▲+28.74%—

Oct 29 '26Oct 29 '26confirmed±11.3%▼−9.56%×0.85

quarterimplied−30%0+30%realized×

Oct '26±11.3%▼−9.56%×0.85

Q2 FY26—▲+28.74%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 11 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.77OI · 11 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Jan 15 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

5 nearer expiries

9,315+68%Nov 62d0.7811,884+90%0.78

2,141+17%Nov 139d0.712,995+33%0.71

19,847+11%Nov 2016d0.7227,741+2%0.72

1,146+23%Nov 2723d1.73663+7%1.73

64+25%Dec 430d0.07944+693%0.07

363+404%Dec 1137d1.24293+3563%1.24

19,208+5%Dec 1844d1.3713,985+15%1.37

report · Jan 8 · before open · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

5 nearer expiries

Nov 62d9,315+68%11,884+90%0.78

Nov 139d2,141+17%2,995+33%0.71

Nov 2016d19,847+11%27,741

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±30.2%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

27.38%as filednet margin · revenue +76.75% QoQ · +164.77% YoY

Revenue

$48M+76.75% QoQ

Gross profit

$21M+167.81% QoQ

44.90% margin

Operating income

$10M+757.60% QoQ

21.90% margin

Pre-tax income

$15M+1534.31% QoQ

Net income

$13M+977.44% QoQ

27.38% margin

Cost of revenue

$26M+38.41% QoQ

Operating expenses

$11M+14.43% QoQ

SG&A $7M

R&D $4M

Tax

$2M+388.84% QoQ

Other income

$5M+788.49% QoQ

Revenue$48M+76.75%

Gross profit

$21M+167.81%

44.90% margin

Operating income

$10M+757.60%

21.90% margin

Pre-tax income

$15M+1534.31%

Net income

$13M+977.44%

27.38% margin

Cost of revenue

$26M+38.41%

Operating expenses

$11M+14.43%

SG&A $7M

R&D $4M

Other income$5M+788.49%

Tax$2M+388.84%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 11:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×2.24· ±11.9% vs ±5.3% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±11.9%5 of 10×2.24

GDPgross domestic product±7.2%8 of 19×1.37

PCEpersonal income & outlays±6.1%6 of 19×1.15

CPIconsumer prices±5.9%7 of 10×1.11

PPIproducer prices±4.8%6 of 10×0.91

CPROFcorporate profits±4.4%3 of 12×0.83

FOMCrate decision±4.1%10 of 24×0.77

Bar = avg |move| to ±12% · tick = ±5.3% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±5.3% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.17 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Jul 30 '26 · confirmed	0.17	—
Q1 FY26	—	-0.03	—
Q3 FY25	—	-0.04	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod