What move does the options market price into AeroVironment's report?

Implied ±8.9%, either direction.

How often does AeroVironment move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

AVAVNasdaqAircraft

AeroVironment Inc (AVAV) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

111.91

−11.62 · −9.41%

post 113.40 +1.33%

After hours16:29 ETdelayed

Open123.18Volume913,541Mkt cap$6.3BEPS-4.06

Day110.19 – 123.1825%52-wk113.15 – 408.250%

AVAV

AeroVironment Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±8.9%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±8.8%·×1.01·fair

102.45122.45

straddle ±16.7%

spot 112.45exp Dec 11ATM strike 112ATM straddle 22.10IV 78%

Nov 4 closereport share · term structurethin chain

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Dec 8

after close · in 34 days

est.Q2 FY27

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+4.45%

vs ±10.7% implied · ×0.42

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Sep 9 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

25.00%

of AVAV revenue · U.S. Army

customerAVAV 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−3.15%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

615 managers

Top fund weight

0.15%

AVAV weight · MDY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

AeroVironment (AVAV) is expected to report on Dec 8 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±11.1%
avg realized: ±8.8%

Dec 4 '24Dec 4 '24confirmed±11.7%▼−15.88%×1.35

Mar 4 '25Mar 4 '25confirmed±12.6%▼−4.38%×0.35

Jun 24 '25Jun 24 '25confirmed±11.8%▲+1.07%×0.09

Sep 9 '25Sep 9 '25confirmed±10.3%▲+6.95%×0.68

Q2 FY26Dec 9 '25confirmed±10.1%▼−12.85%×1.28

Q3 FY26Mar 10 '26confirmed±9.2%▼−6.25%×0.68

Q1 FY27Jun 29 '26confirmed±12.3%▲+18.76%×1.52

Sep 9 '26Sep 9 '26confirmed±10.7%▲+4.45%×0.42

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Sep '26±10.7%▲+4.45%×0.42

Q1 FY27±12.3%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 9 expiries · Nov 3 close

—OI · 9 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Dec 11 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

3 nearer expiries

1,174+2%Nov 62d0.323,672+21%0.32

678+18%Nov 139d0.411,653+1%0.41

4,263+3%Nov 2016d0.577,457+3%0.57

268+5%Nov 2723d0.79339+19%0.79

75+7%Dec 430d0.61122+6%0.61

report · Dec 8 · after close · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

3 nearer expiries

Nov 62d1,174+2%3,672+21%0.32

Nov 139d678+18%1,653+1%0.41

Nov 2016d4,263+3%7,457

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±16.7%

Funds 4

MDY±0.0%

IGPT±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Suppliers 1

AMPX±9.7%×0.58

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 499dMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ1 FY27

−1.05%as filednet margin · revenue −25.11% QoQ · +5.68% YoY

Revenue$480M−25.11%

Gross profit$125M25.93%−38.51%

Operating income−$11M−2.26%−119.09%

Pre-tax income−$7M−111.37%

Net income−$5M−1.05%−108.02%

Cost of revenue$356M−18.93%

Operating expenses$135M−7.01%

Tax−$397,000−102.48%

Other income$4M−52.86%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Aug 1 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.87· ±4.9% vs ±2.6% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±4.9%6 of 10×1.87

CPROFcorporate profits±4.5%5 of 12×1.70

GDPgross domestic product±3.6%8 of 19×1.39

PPIproducer prices±3.5%4 of 10×1.34

PCEpersonal income & outlays±3.4%6 of 19×1.30

FOMCrate decision±2.6%13 of 24×0.98

CPIconsumer prices±2.0%5 of 10×0.75

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±2.6% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.6% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.10 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q1 FY27	Jun 29 '26 · confirmed	-0.10	—
Q4 FY26	—	1.28	—
Q3 FY26	Mar 10 '26 · confirmed	-4.90	—
Q2 FY26	Dec 9 '25 · confirmed	-0.34	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod