What move does the options market price into Arcturus Therapeutics's report?

Implied ±10.2%, either direction.

How often does Arcturus Therapeutics move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

ARCTNasdaqPharmaceutical Preparations

Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (ARCT) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

9.54

0.00 · +0.01%

post 10.85 +13.71%

After hours15:59 ETdelayed

Open9.95Volume749,056Mkt cap$271.2MEPS-3.33

Day9.95 – 10.85100%52-wk5.50 – 17.9643%

ARCT

Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±10.2%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±9.7%·×1.05·fair

9.7211.93

straddle ±15.9%

spot 10.82exp Nov 20ATM strike 11ATM straddle 2.03IV 111%

Nov 4 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 9

after close · in 5 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+21.88%

vs ±21.8% implied · ×1.00

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 6 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

13F top-10 QoQ

+0.09%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

135 managers

Top fund weight

0.01%

ARCT weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT) is expected to report on Nov 9 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±14.0%
avg realized: ±9.7%

Nov 7 '24Nov 7 '24confirmed±10.9%▲+4.72%×0.43

Mar 6 '25Mar 6 '25confirmed±14.7%▼−8.89%×0.60

May 12 '25May 12 '25confirmed±9.5%▲+2.33%×0.24

Aug 11 '25Aug 11 '25confirmed±10.2%▲+30.73%×3.03

Q3 FY25Nov 10 '25confirmed±10.9%▼−1.25%×0.11

Q1 FY26Mar 3 '26confirmed±18.3%▼−4.17%×0.23

May 7 '26May 7 '26confirmed±15.5%▲+3.60%×0.23

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed±21.8%▲+21.88%×1.00

quarterimplied−35%0+35%realized×

Q2 FY26±21.8%▲+21.88%×1.00

May '26±15.5%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.12OI · 3 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

3040%Nov 2016d2,544+13%

833+3%Dec 1844d0.85984+4%0.85

127+3%Mar 19135d0.18689+4%0.18

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d3040%2,544+13%0.12

Dec 1844d833+3%984+4%0.85

Mar 19135d127+3%689+4%0.18

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±15.9%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−803.82%as filednet margin · revenue +43.57% QoQ · −89.54% YoY

Revenue$3M+43.57%

Gross profit$3M100.00%+43.57%

Operating income−$26M−863.30%+11.70%

Pre-tax income−$24M+11.79%

Net income−$24M−803.82%+11.79%

Cost of revenue$0—

Operating expenses$29M−8.03%

Tax$0—

Other income$2M−10.52%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 15:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.34· ±4.9% vs ±3.7% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±4.9%5 of 10×1.34

PCEpersonal income & outlays±3.4%8 of 19×0.93

FOMCrate decision±3.2%11 of 24×0.87

GDPgross domestic product±2.7%10 of 19×0.72

CPIconsumer prices±2.6%5 of 10×0.71

CPROFcorporate profits±2.6%7 of 12×0.70

PPIproducer prices±2.0%7 of 10×0.54

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±3.7% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±3.7% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.84 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	-0.84	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 3 '26 · confirmed	-0.95	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 10 '25 · confirmed	-0.49	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod