What move does the options market price into American Public Education's report?

Implied ±11.9%, either direction.

How often does American Public Education move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

APEINasdaqServices-Educational Services

American Public Education Inc (APEI) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

41.82

+0.23 · +0.56%

Regular session13:21 ET

Open42.01Volume305,759Mkt cap$761.2MP/E16.73EPS2.50

Day41.69 – 42.0338%52-wk30.20 – 61.5937%

APEI

American Public Education Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±11.9%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±10.8%·×1.11·fair

36.6446.54

straddle ±14.1%

spot 41.59exp Nov 20ATM strike 40ATM straddle 6.88IV 94%

Nov 2 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 9

after close · in 6 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−3.52%

vs ±14.3% implied · ×0.25

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 10 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

5dBLKB · supplierBlackbaud net income $46.1 million, diluted EPS $1.02; revenue $292.6 million
10dCRM · supplierSalesforce Grants Equity Awards to m3ter and Fin Under Its Inducement Equity Incentive Plan

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+8.70%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26126d lag

207 managers

Top fund weight

0.03%

APEI weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

American Public Education (APEI) is expected to report on Nov 9 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±13.7%
avg realized: ±10.8%

Nov 12 '24Nov 12 '24confirmed±11.5%▲+14.61%×1.27

Mar 6 '25Mar 6 '25confirmed±16.6%▲+22.08%×1.33

May 12 '25May 12 '25confirmed±13.1%▲+5.88%×0.45

Aug 6 '25Aug 6 '25confirmed±12.0%▼−7.93%×0.66

Q3 FY25Nov 10 '25confirmed±17.6%▲+4.88%×0.28

Q1 FY26Mar 12 '26confirmed±12.7%▲+21.19%×1.66

May 11 '26May 11 '26confirmed±11.8%▼−5.98%×0.51

Q2 FY26Aug 10 '26confirmed±14.3%▼−3.52%×0.25

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q2 FY26±14.3%▼−3.52%×0.25

May '26±11.8%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 30 close

3.59OI · 3 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

610+352%Nov 2017d1700%

87+81%Dec 1845d0.223920%0.22

100+49%Mar 19136d0.58171+6%0.58

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2017d610+352%1700%3.59

Dec 1845d87+81%3920%0.22

Mar 19136d100+49%171+6%0.58

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±14.1%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

5.69%as filednet margin · revenue −1.72% QoQ · +5.51% YoY

Revenue

$172M−1.72% QoQ

Gross profit

$95M−5.01% QoQ

55.37% margin

Operating income

$14M−37.50% QoQ

7.88% margin

Pre-tax income

$14M−26.43% QoQ

Net income

$10M−44.88% QoQ

5.69% margin

Cost of revenue

$77M+2.69% QoQ

Operating expenses

$82M+3.95% QoQ

Marketing $40M

SG&A $37M

Depreciation $4M

Tax

$4M+189.57% QoQ

Other income

$634,000+126.45% QoQ

Revenue$172M−1.72%

Gross profit

$95M−5.01%

55.37% margin

Operating income

$14M−37.50%

7.88% margin

Pre-tax income

$14M−26.43%

Net income

$10M−44.88%

5.69% margin

Cost of revenue

$77M+2.69%

Operating expenses

$82M+3.95%

Marketing $40M

SG&A $37M

Depreciation $4M

Other income$634,000+126.45%

Tax$4M+189.57%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 2 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 13:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PCE ×1.16· ±2.8% vs ±2.4% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.8%12 of 19×1.16

GDPgross domestic product±2.6%10 of 19×1.08

PPIproducer prices±2.4%3 of 10×0.98

FOMCrate decision±2.4%15 of 24×0.97

CPIconsumer prices±1.9%6 of 10×0.79

CPROFcorporate profits±1.6%7 of 12×0.65

NFPjobs report±0.9%5 of 10×0.39

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±2.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.52 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 10 '26 · confirmed	0.52	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 12 '26 · confirmed	0.94	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 10 '25 · confirmed	0.30	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod