What move does the options market price into Ameresco's report?

Implied ±14.9%, either direction.

How often does Ameresco move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

AMRCNYSEConstruction - Special Trade Contractors

Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

21.98

−0.30 · −1.36%

Regular session12:12 ET

Open22.60Volume525,715Mkt cap$1.2B

Day21.79 – 23.2413%52-wk18.27 – 38.7818%

AMRC

Ameresco, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±14.9%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±19.6%·×0.76·cheap

18.9725.59

straddle ±17.5%

spot 22.28exp Nov 20ATM strike 22.5ATM straddle 4.60IV 120%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 9

after close · in 5 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+22.92%

vs ±17.7% implied · ×1.29

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 3 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

61.00%

of AMRC revenue · Federal government customers

customerAMRC 10-K

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+9.22%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

185 managers

Top fund weight

0.03%

AMRC weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Ameresco (AMRC) is expected to report on Nov 9 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±15.2%
avg realized: ±19.6%

Nov 7 '24Nov 7 '24confirmed±12.1%▼−16.31%×1.35

Feb 27 '25Feb 27 '25confirmed±13.7%▼−35.62%×2.61

May 5 '25May 5 '25confirmed±15.2%▲+11.78%×0.77

Aug 4 '25Aug 4 '25confirmed±13.4%▲+48.98%×3.66

Nov 3 '25Nov 3 '25confirmed±17.6%▼−9.30%×0.53

Q1 FY26Mar 2 '26confirmed±16.9%▼−9.85%×0.58

May 4 '26May 4 '26confirmed±15.2%▼−2.26%×0.15

Q2 FY26Aug 3 '26confirmed±17.7%▲+22.92%×1.29

quarterimplied−50%0+50%realized×

Q2 FY26±17.7%▲+22.92%×1.29

May '26±15.2%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Nov 2 close

1.35OI · 3 expiries · Nov 2 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

514−22%Nov 2016d3810%

5790%Jan 1572d0.391,4680%0.39

2170%Apr 16163d0.583710%0.58

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d514−22%3810%1.35

Jan 1572d5790%1,4680%0.39

Apr 16163d2170%3710%0.58

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±17.5%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

3.86%as filednet margin · revenue +28.40% QoQ · +9.14% YoY

Revenue

$515M+28.40% QoQ

Gross profit

$91M+61.71% QoQ

17.71% margin

Operating income

$44M+327.02% QoQ

8.49% margin

Pre-tax income

$20M+214.10% QoQ

Net income

$20M+238.41% QoQ

3.86% margin

Cost of revenue

$424M+22.95% QoQ

Operating expenses

$48M+2.67% QoQ

Other expense

$24M

Tax

$137,000+104.30% QoQ

Revenue$515M+28.40%

Gross profit

$91M+61.71%

17.71% margin

Operating income

$44M+327.02%

8.49% margin

Pre-tax income

$20M+214.10%

Net income

$20M+238.41%

3.86% margin

Cost of revenue

$424M+22.95%

Operating expenses

$48M+2.67%

Other expense

$24M

Tax$137,000+104.30%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 12:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PCE ×1.21· ±4.4% vs ±3.6% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PCEpersonal income & outlays±4.4%10 of 19×1.21

GDPgross domestic product±3.5%12 of 19×0.97

NFPjobs report±3.5%6 of 10×0.96

CPIconsumer prices±3.3%6 of 10×0.92

FOMCrate decision±3.1%13 of 24×0.85

PPIproducer prices±2.8%4 of 10×0.76

CPROFcorporate profits±2.7%9 of 12×0.73

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±3.6% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±3.6% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.18 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 3 '26 · confirmed	0.18	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 2 '26 · confirmed	-0.35	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod