What move does the options market price into Alpha Metallurgical Resources's report?

Implied ±5.6%, either direction.

How often does Alpha Metallurgical Resources move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 6 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

AMRNYSEBituminous Coal & Lignite Surface Mining

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

153.30

+0.67 · +0.44%

post 152.44 −0.56%

After hours15:59 ETdelayed

Open151.40Volume183,180Mkt cap$1.9BEPS-3.59

Day146.16 – 152.45100%52-wk133.64 – 253.8216%

AMR

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±5.6%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±5.5%·×1.02·fair

145.12162.50

straddle ±9.8%

spot 153.81exp Nov 20ATM strike 155ATM straddle 17.80IV 69%

Nov 4 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

before open · in 1 day

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−0.11%

vs ±10.5% implied · ×0.01

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 7 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

73.00%

of AMR revenue · Undisclosed direct customer

customerAMR 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+3.69%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

253 managers

Top fund weight

0.06%

AMR weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) is expected to report on Nov 5 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 6≥ implied

avg implied: ±9.9%
avg realized: ±5.7%

Nov 1 '24Nov 1 '24confirmed—▼−2.74%—

Feb 28 '25Feb 28 '25confirmed—▼−7.43%—

May 9 '25May 9 '25confirmed±11.5%▼−8.50%×0.74

Aug 8 '25Aug 8 '25confirmed±7.3%▲+15.81%×2.16

Q3 FY25Nov 6 '25confirmed±10.5%▼−1.65%×0.16

Q1 FY26Feb 27 '26confirmed±11.9%▼−3.21%×0.27

May 8 '26May 8 '26confirmed±7.7%▼−4.82%×0.63

Q2 FY26Aug 7 '26confirmed±10.5%▼−0.11%×0.01

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q2 FY26±10.5%▼−0.11%×0.01

May '26±7.7%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.87OI · 3 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

2,3210%Nov 2016d2,6640%

229+2%Dec 1844d2.31990%2.31

976+1%Feb 19107d0.118,5110%0.11

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d2,3210%2,6640%0.87

Dec 1844d229+2%990%2.31

Feb 19107d976+1%8,5110%0.11

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±9.8%

Funds 4

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−2.49%as filednet margin · revenue −6.12% QoQ · −10.43% YoY

Revenue$493M−6.12%

Gross profit$49M9.98%−2.78%

Operating income−$11M−2.13%−0.65%

Pre-tax income−$19M−15.22%

Net income−$12M−2.49%−11.06%

Cost of revenue$444M−6.48%

Operating expenses$60M−2.19%

Tax−$7M−23.83%

Other expense−$8M−40.85%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.27· ±3.3% vs ±2.6% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±3.3%2 of 10×1.27

CPIconsumer prices±2.7%7 of 10×1.03

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.6%8 of 19×0.98

NFPjobs report±2.5%5 of 10×0.97

FOMCrate decision±2.0%12 of 24×0.77

CPROFcorporate profits±2.0%10 of 12×0.76

GDPgross domestic product±1.7%11 of 19×0.64

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±2.6% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.6% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.96 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 7 '26 · confirmed	-0.96	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 27 '26 · confirmed	-0.86	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 6 '25 · confirmed	-0.42	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod