What move does the options market price into American Financial's report?

Implied ±2.9%, either direction.

AFGNYSEFire, Marine & Casualty Insurance

American Financial Group Inc (AFG) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

153.71

Closed16:00 ET

Open154.50Volume503,802Mkt cap$12.8BP/E13.42EPS11.45Div yield2.35%

Day153.25 – 154.7630%52-wk120.89 – 155.1196%

AFG

American Financial Group Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±2.9%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±4.2%·×0.70·cheap

149.37158.37

straddle ±4.3%

spot 153.87exp Nov 20ATM strike 155ATM straddle 7.85IV 26%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 4

before open · in 4 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+4.36%

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 5 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

73dAII · supplierAmerican Integrity Insurance (AII) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−2.14%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

513 managers

Top fund weight

0.26%

AFG weight · MDY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

5 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

American Financial (AFG) is expected to report on Nov 4 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

—≥ implied

Nov 6 '24Nov 6 '24confirmed—▲+4.99%—

Feb 5 '25Feb 5 '25confirmed—▼−6.23%—

May 7 '25May 7 '25confirmed—▼−6.14%—

Aug 6 '25Aug 6 '25confirmed—▲+2.69%—

Nov 5 '25Nov 5 '25confirmed—▲+2.80%—

Feb 4 '26Feb 4 '26confirmed—▼−3.12%—

Q1 FY26Apr 30 '26confirmed—▲+2.97%—

Q2 FY26Aug 5 '26confirmed—▲+4.36%—

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q2 FY26—▲+4.36%—

Q1 FY26—▲+2.97%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 26 close

0.18OI · 3 expiries · Oct 26 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

140%Nov 2020d760%

570%Dec 1848d0.212700%0.21

40%Mar 19139d0.021700%0.02

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2020d140%760%0.18

Dec 1848d570%2700%0.21

Mar 19139d40%1700%0.02

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±4.3%

Funds 4

MDY±0.0%

SCHD±0.0%

VIG±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Suppliers 1

AII±2.6%×0.61

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 362dMethod 1 more fund Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

12.36%as filednet margin · revenue +9.56% QoQ · +5.30% YoY

Revenue$2.0B+9.56%

Pre-tax income$316M+32.22%

Net income$248M12.36%+29.84%

Tax$68M+41.67%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.16· ±1.1% vs ±1.0% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±1.1%3 of 10×1.16

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.1%8 of 19×1.15

GDPgross domestic product±1.1%8 of 19×1.12

FOMCrate decision±1.0%11 of 24×1.07

CPROFcorporate profits±1.0%6 of 12×1.01

PPIproducer prices±1.0%4 of 10×0.99

CPIconsumer prices±0.9%5 of 10×0.97

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.0% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.0% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.99 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 5 '26 · confirmed	2.99	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 30 '26 · confirmed	2.29	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod