What move does the options market price into Adaptive Biotechnologies's report?

Implied ±15.5%, either direction.

How often does Adaptive Biotechnologies move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

ADPTNasdaqBiological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp (ADPT) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

25.04

−1.60 · −6.02%

post 25.04 0.00%

After hours16:00 ETdelayed

Open25.40Volume4.3MMkt cap$4.3BEPS-0.40

Day25.04 – 25.450%52-wk12.00 – 30.7470%

ADPT

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±15.5%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±10.8%·×1.44·rich

21.7629.74

straddle ±17.0%

spot 25.75exp Nov 20ATM strike 25ATM straddle 5.15IV 117%

Nov 2 closereport share · term structurethin chain

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 4

after close · in 2 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+7.18%

vs ±15.2% implied · ×0.47

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Jul 29 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

3dILMN · supplierIllumina posts net income $220 million, revenue $1,129 million, diluted EPS $1.43
40dPFE · customerEli Lilly Vs. Pfizer in 2027: One Is a Much Better Place to Park Your Pharmaceutical Capital Next Year

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+13.59%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26125d lag

299 managers

Top fund weight

0.10%

ADPT weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) is expected to report on Nov 4 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±15.7%
avg realized: ±10.8%

Feb 11 '25Feb 11 '25confirmed±13.4%▼−3.21%×0.24

May 1 '25May 1 '25confirmed±13.4%▲+33.70%×2.52

Aug 5 '25Aug 5 '25confirmed±19.2%▲+5.79%×0.30

Q3 FY25Nov 5 '25confirmed±20.9%▼−11.54%×0.55

Jan 12 '26Jan 12 '26confirmed±13.5%▲+15.86%×1.18

Feb 5 '26Feb 5 '26confirmed±13.4%▼−4.25%×0.32

Q1 FY26May 5 '26confirmed±16.2%▲+4.72%×0.29

Q2 FY26Jul 29 '26confirmed±15.2%▲+7.18%×0.47

quarterimplied−35%0+35%realized×

Q2 FY26±15.2%▲+7.18%×0.47

Q1 FY26±16.2%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.14OI · 3 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

46+10%Nov 2018d336+15%

157+6%Jan 1574d0.062,732−1%0.06

2110%Apr 16165d1.92110+13%1.92

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2018d46+10%336+15%0.14

Jan 1574d157+6%2,732−1%0.06

Apr 16165d2110%110+13%1.92

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±17.0%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Suppliers 1

ILMN±4.4%×0.26

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−55.82%as filednet margin · revenue +0.96% QoQ · +21.53% YoY

Revenue$72M+0.96%

Gross profit$51M71.82%−1.49%

Operating income−$16M−22.04%+17.89%

Pre-tax income−$40M−99.56%

Net income−$40M−55.82%−99.56%

Cost of revenue$20M+7.79%

Operating expenses$67M−5.90%

Other expense−$24M−2887.76%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 2 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PCE ×1.29· ±4.4% vs ±3.4% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PCEpersonal income & outlays±4.4%10 of 19×1.29

CPROFcorporate profits±3.8%8 of 12×1.12

NFPjobs report±3.8%3 of 10×1.11

GDPgross domestic product±3.5%13 of 19×1.03

PPIproducer prices±3.1%4 of 10×0.92

FOMCrate decision±3.0%10 of 24×0.89

CPIconsumer prices±1.8%4 of 10×0.53

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±3.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±3.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.25 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Jul 29 '26 · confirmed	-0.25	—
Q1 FY26	May 5 '26 · confirmed	-0.13	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 5 '25 · confirmed	0.06	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod