What move does the options market price into Archer-Daniels-Midland's report?

Implied ±4.7%, either direction.

How often does Archer-Daniels-Midland move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

ADMNYSEFats & Oils

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

76.93

+0.73 · +0.96%

post 77.40 +0.61%

Closed17:24 ET

Open76.74Volume4.1MMkt cap$37.1BP/E21.15EPS3.66Div yield2.69%

Day76.38 – 77.4397%52-wk54.00 – 88.7567%

ADM

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±4.7%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±2.6%·×1.82·rich

73.3180.51

straddle ±6.4%

spot 76.91exp Nov 20ATM strike 77.5ATM straddle 5.82IV 39%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 3

before open · in 3 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+2.32%

vs ±6.5% implied · ×0.36

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 4 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+1.03%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

1,170 managers

Top fund weight

2.39%

ADM weight · XLP

N-PORTJun 30 '26

11 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) is expected to report on Nov 3 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±4.8%
avg realized: ±2.6%

Nov 18 '24Nov 18 '24confirmed±1.6%▲+0.53%×0.34

Feb 4 '25Feb 4 '25confirmed±3.9%▼−5.06%×1.31

May 6 '25May 6 '25confirmed±5.0%▲+1.73%×0.35

Aug 5 '25Aug 5 '25confirmed±3.5%▲+6.00%×1.70

Q3 FY25Nov 4 '25confirmed±4.6%▲+0.05%×0.01

Feb 3 '26Feb 3 '26confirmed±8.0%▼−1.01%×0.13

Q1 FY26May 5 '26confirmed±5.4%▲+3.83%×0.71

Q2 FY26Aug 4 '26confirmed±6.5%▲+2.32%×0.36

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q2 FY26±6.5%▲+2.32%×0.36

Q1 FY26±5.4%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.13OI · 4 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

3,730+1%Nov 2020d28,090+4%

3,273+1%Dec 1848d0.3210,2510%0.32

14,3600%Jan 1576d0.7319,663+1%0.73

2,4900%Mar 19139d0.514,904+1%0.51

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2020d3,730+1%28,090+4%0.13

Dec 1848d3,273+1%10,2510%0.32

Jan 1576d14,3600%19,663+1%0.73

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±6.4%

Funds 4

XLP±0.2%

SCHD±0.1%

RSP±0.0%

VIG±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

4.02%as filednet margin · revenue +10.69% QoQ · +7.16% YoY

Revenue

$22.7B+10.69% QoQ

Gross profit

$1.9B+58.35% QoQ

8.53% margin

Operating income

$896M+259.84% QoQ

3.95% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.1B+183.33% QoQ

Net income

$912M+200.99% QoQ

4.02% margin

Cost of revenue

$20.7B+7.67% QoQ

Operating expenses

$1.0B+6.78% QoQ

SG&A $1.0B

Other operating $13M

Tax

$176M+117.28% QoQ

Other income

$192M+42.22% QoQ

Revenue$22.7B+10.69%

Gross profit

$1.9B+58.35%

8.53% margin

Operating income

$896M+259.84%

3.95% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.1B+183.33%

Net income

$912M+200.99%

4.02% margin

Cost of revenue

$20.7B+7.67%

Operating expenses

$1.0B+6.78%

SG&A $1.0B

Other operating $13M

Other income$192M+42.22%

Tax$176M+117.28%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 17:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.16· ±1.5% vs ±1.3% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±1.5%7 of 10×1.16

FOMCrate decision±1.4%7 of 24×1.07

NFPjobs report±1.3%7 of 10×1.05

CPROFcorporate profits±1.0%6 of 12×0.81

CPIconsumer prices±0.9%6 of 10×0.74

PCEpersonal income & outlays±0.9%6 of 19×0.67

GDPgross domestic product±0.8%10 of 19×0.66

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.3% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.3% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.87 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 4 '26 · confirmed	1.87	—
Q1 FY26	May 5 '26 · confirmed	0.62	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 4 '25 · confirmed	0.22	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod