What move does the options market price into Ares Commercial Real Estate's report?

Implied ±26.6%, either direction.

How often does Ares Commercial Real Estate move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

ACRENYSEReal Estate Investment Trusts

Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp (ACRE) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

3.52

+0.16 · +4.76%

Regular session09:47 ET

Open3.36Volume572,683Mkt cap$189.7MDiv yield17.54%

Day3.36 – 3.52100%52-wk3.16 – 5.3217%

ACRE

Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±26.6%implied · straddle

2.474.25

spot 3.36exp Nov 20ATM strike 2.5ATM straddle 1.05IV 155%

Nov 3 close

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 6

before open · in 2 days

confirmedQ3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+8.94%

vs ±16.2% implied · ×0.55

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 4 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

6dARES · supplierAres Management Announces Third Quarter 2026 U.S. Direct Lending Origination Activity

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+7.05%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

144 managers

Top fund weight

0.01%

ACRE weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE) reports on Nov 6 before open (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±13.2%
avg realized: ±10.1%

Nov 7 '24Nov 7 '24confirmed±17.3%▲+10.17%×0.59

Feb 12 '25Feb 12 '25confirmed±16.2%▼−12.15%×0.75

May 7 '25May 7 '25confirmed±19.7%▲+13.59%×0.69

Aug 5 '25Aug 5 '25confirmed±10.8%▼−7.97%×0.74

Q3 FY25Nov 7 '25confirmed±11.9%▲+12.69%×1.07

Feb 10 '26Feb 10 '26confirmed±7.0%▲+11.74%×1.67

Q1 FY26May 7 '26confirmed±6.5%▼−3.26%×0.50

Q2 FY26Aug 4 '26confirmed±16.2%▲+8.94%×0.55

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q2 FY26±16.2%▲+8.94%×0.55

Q1 FY26±6.5%▼−3.26%×0.50

Feb '26±7.0%▲+11.74%×1.67

Q3 FY25±11.9%▲+12.69%×1.07

Aug '25±10.8%▼−7.97%×0.74

May '25±19.7%▲+13.59%×0.69

2 older reports

Feb '25±16.2%▼−12.15%×0.75

Nov '24±17.3%▲+10.17%×0.59

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 2 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.05OI · 2 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

470%Nov 2016d9110%

1390%Feb 19107d0.255510%0.25

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d470%9110%0.05

Feb 19107d1390%5510%0.25

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±26.6%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Suppliers 1

ARES±9.5%×0.36

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

32.49%as filednet margin · revenue +1425.25% QoQ · +4833.68% YoY

Revenue$13M+1425.25%

Pre-tax income$5M+147.22%

Net income$4M32.49%+145.63%

Tax$138,000+360.00%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 09:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.72· ±2.9% vs ±1.7% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±2.9%12 of 24×1.72

NFPjobs report±1.6%4 of 10×0.97

PPIproducer prices±1.5%6 of 11×0.90

CPROFcorporate profits±1.4%6 of 12×0.85

GDPgross domestic product±1.4%8 of 20×0.85

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.4%6 of 20×0.80

CPIconsumer prices±0.9%1 of 11×0.51

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.7% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.7% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS — · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 4 '26 · confirmed	—	—
Q1 FY26	May 7 '26 · confirmed	—	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 7 '25 · confirmed	—	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod