What move does the options market price into Advance Auto Parts's report?

Implied ±11.5%, either direction.

How often does Advance Auto Parts move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

AAPNYSERetail-Auto & Home Supply Stores

Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

47.57

Pre-market17:10 ETdelayed

Open47.50Volume1.8MMkt cap$2.9BDiv yield2.09%

Day47.08 – 49.2023%52-wk37.11 – 64.2439%

AAP

Advance Auto Parts Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±11.5%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±10.6%·×1.09·fair

42.0853.06

straddle ±12.0%

spot 47.57exp Nov 13ATM strike 47.5ATM straddle 6.73IV 107%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 12

before open · in 8 days

est.Q3 FY27

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−24.55%

vs ±19.0% implied · ×1.29

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 20 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

54dJEF · supplierJefferies (JEF) Linked Fund Faces Nearly $500M in Reported Radiant Exposure. Is the Parent Protected?
78dMPAA · supplierMotorcar Parts (MPAA) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Transcript

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+13.13%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

377 managers

Top fund weight

0.12%

AAP weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Advance Auto Parts (AAP) is expected to report on Nov 12 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±11.4%
avg realized: ±10.6%

Aug 22 '24Aug 22 '24confirmed±10.6%▼−17.47%×1.65

Nov 14 '24Nov 14 '24confirmed±13.1%▲+0.63%×0.05

Jul 24 '25Jul 24 '25confirmed±3.4%▼−10.30%×3.00

Aug 14 '25Aug 14 '25confirmed±12.1%▼−8.02%×0.66

Q3 FY25Oct 30 '25confirmed±11.9%▼−8.04%×0.67

Feb 13 '26Feb 13 '26confirmed±11.3%▲+1.08%×0.10

Q1 FY26May 21 '26confirmed±10.1%▲+14.40%×1.42

Q2 FY26Aug 20 '26confirmed±19.0%▼−24.55%×1.29

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q2 FY26±19.0%▼−24.55%×1.29

Q1 FY26±10.1%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 9 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.30OI · 9 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 13 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

489+30%Nov 62d0.331,468+27%0.33

report · Nov 12 · before open · est.

240+1%Nov 139d185+9%

2,208+12%Nov 2016d1.451,520+11%1.45

76−1%Nov 2723d0.54142−1%0.54

5 later expiries

6—Dec 430d0.4015—0.40

2—Dec 1137d—

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 62d489+30%1,468+27%0.33

report · Nov 12 · before open · est.

Nov 139d240+1%185+9%1.30

Nov 2016d2,208+12%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±12.0%

Funds 4

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

2.75%as filednet margin · revenue −23.49% QoQ · −0.50% YoY

Revenue

$2.0B−23.49% QoQ

Gross profit

$923M−21.78% QoQ

46.15% margin

Operating income

$101M+46.38% QoQ

5.05% margin

Pre-tax income

$75M+114.29% QoQ

Net income

$55M+129.17% QoQ

2.75% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.1B−24.90% QoQ

Operating expenses

$822M−26.01% QoQ

SG&A $812M

Other operating $10M

Other expense

$26M

Tax

$20M+81.82% QoQ

Revenue$2.0B−23.49%

Gross profit

$923M−21.78%

46.15% margin

Operating income

$101M+46.38%

5.05% margin

Pre-tax income

$75M+114.29%

Net income

$55M+129.17%

2.75% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.1B−24.90%

Operating expenses

$822M−26.01%

SG&A $812M

Other operating $10M

Other expense

$26M

Tax$20M+81.82%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jul 18 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 17:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.26· ±3.1% vs ±2.5% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±3.1%4 of 10×1.26

CPROFcorporate profits±2.8%6 of 12×1.14

GDPgross domestic product±2.6%7 of 19×1.07

NFPjobs report±2.4%4 of 10×0.98

CPIconsumer prices±2.1%6 of 10×0.84

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.0%8 of 19×0.82

FOMCrate decision±2.0%10 of 24×0.82

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±2.5% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.5% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.90 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 20 '26 · confirmed	0.90	—
Q1 FY26	May 21 '26 · confirmed	0.39	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 30 '25 · confirmed	-0.02	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod