What move does the options market price into XPO's report?

Implied ±15.1%, either direction · provisional.

XPONYSETransportation Services

XPO, Inc. (XPO) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

189.61

+6.60 · +3.61%

post 189.63 +0.01%

Closed16:00 ET

Open181.50Volume2.1MMkt cap$22.1BP/E44.00EPS4.31

Day181.50 – 190.0595%52-wk124.82 – 232.0560%

XPO

XPO, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±15.1%implied · straddle

160.97218.17

spot 189.57exp Feb 19ATM strike 190ATM straddle 33.65IV 40%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 4

before open · in 95 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+0.73%

vs ±8.4% implied · ×0.09

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 29 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

75dAIOT · supplierPowerFleet (AIOT) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Transcript

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+0.90%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

754 managers

Top fund weight

0.76%

XPO weight · FTC

N-PORTJul 31 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

XPO (XPO) is expected to report on Feb 4 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

—≥ implied

Feb 6 '25Feb 6 '25confirmed—▲+7.78%—

Apr 30 '25Apr 30 '25confirmed—▲+8.92%—

Jul 31 '25Jul 31 '25confirmed—▼−9.07%—

Oct 30 '25Oct 30 '25confirmed—▲+8.99%—

Feb 5 '26Feb 5 '26confirmed—▲+3.39%—

Q1 FY26Apr 30 '26confirmed—▲+1.58%—

Q2 FY26Jul 30 '26confirmed—▼−0.06%—

Q3 FY26Oct 29 '26confirmed±8.4%▲+0.73%×0.09

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q3 FY26±8.4%▲+0.73%×0.09

Q2 FY26—▼−0.06%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 5 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.66OI · 5 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6,7870%Nov 2019d3.022,249+157%3.02

419−1%Dec 1847d0.86487+2%0.86

2,7230%Jan 1575d1.691,615+1%1.69

report · Feb 4 · before open · est.

1490%Feb 19110d2260%

6730%Mar 19138d0.521,3060%0.52

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2019d6,7870%2,249+157%3.02

Dec 1847d419−1%487+2%0.86

Jan 1575d2,7230%1,615+1%1.69

report · Feb 4 · before open · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±15.1%

Funds 4

FTC±0.1%

MDY±0.1%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Suppliers 1

AIOT±8.4%×0.56

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

7.63%as filednet margin · revenue +0.76% QoQ · +12.41% YoY

Revenue

$2.4B+0.76% QoQ

Gross profit

$973M+1.14% QoQ

41.00% margin

Operating income

$288M+6.27% QoQ

12.14% margin

Pre-tax income

$240M+10.09% QoQ

Net income

$181M+11.73% QoQ

7.63% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.4B+0.50% QoQ

Operating expenses

$684M−0.87% QoQ

SG&A $520M

Depreciation $134M

Other operating $20M

Other operating $10M

Other expense

$48M

Tax

$60M+7.14% QoQ

Revenue$2.4B+0.76%

Gross profit

$973M+1.14%

41.00% margin

Operating income

$288M+6.27%

12.14% margin

Pre-tax income

$240M+10.09%

Net income

$181M+11.73%

7.63% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.4B+0.50%

Operating expenses

$684M−0.87%

SG&A $520M

Depreciation $134M

Other operating $20M

Other expense

$48M

Tax$60M+7.14%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.26· ±2.5% vs ±2.0% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±2.5%6 of 10×1.26

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.5%9 of 19×1.25

FOMCrate decision±2.2%11 of 24×1.08

PPIproducer prices±1.8%7 of 10×0.91

CPIconsumer prices±1.8%5 of 10×0.91

GDPgross domestic product±1.5%9 of 19×0.75

CPROFcorporate profits±0.9%6 of 12×0.45

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±2.0% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.0% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.53 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 29 '26 · confirmed	1.53	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 30 '26 · confirmed	1.36	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 30 '26 · confirmed	0.85	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod