What move does the options market price into Warner Music's report?

Implied ±8.6%, either direction.

WMGNasdaqServices-Amusement & Recreation Services

Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

31.11

+0.14 · +0.46%

post 31.13 +0.06%

Closed17:34 ET

Open31.10Volume1.5MMkt cap$16.3BP/E24.20Div yield2.47%

Day30.85 – 31.2080%52-wk23.04 – 34.9768%

WMG

Warner Music Group Corp.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±8.6%implied · report alone

28.4533.81

straddle ±8.9%

spot 31.13exp Nov 20ATM strike 31ATM straddle 3.25IV 61%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 19

before open · in 15 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+1.69%

vs ±12.9% implied · ×0.13

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 5 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

20.00%

of WMG revenue · Spotify AB

customerWMG 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+10.04%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

335 managers

Top fund weight

0.11%

WMG weight · MDY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

2 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Warner Music (WMG) is expected to report on Nov 19 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

1 report

—≥ implied

Q3 FY26Aug 5 '26confirmed±12.9%▲+1.69%×0.13

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q3 FY26±12.9%▲+1.69%×0.13

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.06OI · 4 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

304+1%Nov 2016d5,3190%

0—Dec 1844d0.003,5260%0.00

371−1%Jan 1572d0.132,8720%0.13

102+4%Apr 16163d0.0113,1520%0.01

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d304+1%5,3190%0.06

Dec 1844d0—3,5260%0.00

Jan 1572d371−1%2,8720%0.13

Apr 16163d102+4%13,1520%0.01

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±8.9%

Funds 2

MDY±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

10.73%as filednet margin · revenue +7.62% QoQ · +10.36% YoY

Revenue

$1.9B+7.62% QoQ

Gross profit

$854M+6.48% QoQ

45.82% margin

Operating income

$305M+15.53% QoQ

16.36% margin

Pre-tax income

$267M+5.12% QoQ

Net income

$200M+10.50% QoQ

10.73% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.0B+8.60% QoQ

Operating expenses

$549M+2.04% QoQ

SG&A $464M

Other operating $85M

Other expense

$38M

Tax

$67M−8.22% QoQ

Revenue$1.9B+7.62%

Gross profit

$854M+6.48%

45.82% margin

Operating income

$305M+15.53%

16.36% margin

Pre-tax income

$267M+5.12%

Net income

$200M+10.50%

10.73% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.0B+8.60%

Operating expenses

$549M+2.04%

SG&A $464M

Other operating $85M

Other expense

$38M

Tax$67M−8.22%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 17:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.97· ±2.6% vs ±1.3% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±2.6%4 of 10×1.97

CPIconsumer prices±2.1%7 of 10×1.58

PPIproducer prices±2.1%5 of 10×1.56

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.5%7 of 19×1.08

GDPgross domestic product±1.4%6 of 19×1.04

FOMCrate decision±1.3%10 of 24×0.96

CPROFcorporate profits±1.1%3 of 12×0.85

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.3% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.3% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.77 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Aug 5 '26 · confirmed	0.77	—
Q2 FY26	—	0.68	—
Q1 FY26	—	0.66	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod