What move does the options market price into Wayfair's report?

Implied ±9.9%, either direction.

WNYSERetail-Catalog & Mail-Order Houses

Wayfair Inc. (W) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

114.98

−5.14 · −4.28%

post 115.60 +0.54%

Closed19:37 ET

Open117.80Volume2.2MMkt cap$15.9BEPS-2.47

Day113.66 – 119.2535%52-wk55.60 – 120.9092%

Wayfair Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±9.9%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±12.8%·×0.78·cheap

104.45127.37

straddle ±11.0%

spot 115.91exp Nov 6ATM strike 116ATM straddle 14.98IV 117%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 4

before open · in 3 days

confirmedQ3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+29.97%

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 4 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

11hGOOGL · supplierWhy AI is boosting Meta's ad business while hurting Google search
2dMSFT · supplierMicrosoft is winning the cloud wars and becoming Wall Street’s new golden child

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−0.95%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

465 managers

Top fund weight

0.15%

W weight · REVS

N-PORTJul 31 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Wayfair (W) reports on Nov 4 before open (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

—≥ implied

Nov 1 '24Nov 1 '24confirmed—▼−6.26%—

Feb 20 '25Feb 20 '25confirmed—▼−0.58%—

May 1 '25May 1 '25confirmed—▲+3.55%—

Aug 4 '25Aug 4 '25confirmed—▲+12.66%—

Q3 FY25Oct 28 '25confirmed—▲+23.22%—

Feb 19 '26Feb 19 '26confirmed—▼−13.02%—

Q1 FY26Apr 30 '26confirmed—▼−12.75%—

Q2 FY26Aug 4 '26confirmed—▲+29.97%—

quarterimplied−30%0+30%realized×

Q2 FY26—▲+29.97%—

Q1 FY26—▼−12.75%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.89OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 6 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

2,129+23%Nov 65d2,391+21%

863+14%Nov 1312d0.611,416+13%0.61

16,489+2%Nov 2019d1.679,877+2%1.67

534+24%Nov 2726d2.34228+151%2.34

261+107%Dec 433d2.02129+68%2.02

5 later expiries

344—Dec 1140d—0——

9,079+4%Dec 1847d0.75

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 65d2,129+23%2,391+21%0.89

Nov 1312d863+14%1,416+13%0.61

Nov 2019d16,489+2%9,877+2%1.67

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±11.0%

Funds 3

REVS±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Suppliers 4

GFF±2.5%×0.23

FDX±1.8%×0.16

GOOGL±1.5%×0.13

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−0.03%as filednet margin · revenue +20.06% QoQ · +7.52% YoY

Revenue$3.5B+20.06%

Gross profit$1.1B29.95%+19.77%

Operating income$104M2.96%+1045.45%

Pre-tax income$2M+101.92%

Net income−$1M−0.03%+99.05%

Cost of revenue$2.5B+20.19%

Operating expenses$950M+6.62%

Tax$3M+200.00%

Other expense−$102M−9.68%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 19:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.23· ±3.9% vs ±3.2% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±3.9%3 of 10×1.23

FOMCrate decision±3.0%10 of 24×0.93

GDPgross domestic product±2.6%10 of 19×0.81

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.2%10 of 19×0.70

NFPjobs report±2.0%5 of 10×0.65

CPIconsumer prices±1.9%4 of 10×0.61

CPROFcorporate profits±1.3%6 of 12×0.42

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±3.2% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±3.2% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.01 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 4 '26 · confirmed	-0.01	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 30 '26 · confirmed	-0.80	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 28 '25 · confirmed	-0.76	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod