What move does the options market price into Vertex Pharmaceuticals's report?

Implied ±3.8%, either direction.

How often does Vertex Pharmaceuticals move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

VRTXNasdaqPharmaceutical Preparations

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

558.99

+18.99 · +3.52%

post 558.00 −0.18%

Closed19:53 ET

Open548.72Volume3.0MMkt cap$141.7BP/E32.22EPS17.32

Day545.30 – 560.7182%52-wk403.16 – 563.8096%

VRTX

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±3.8%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±6.1%·×0.61·cheap

537.82579.94

straddle ±4.8%

spot 558.88exp Nov 6ATM strike 560ATM straddle 31.35IV 50%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 2

after close · in 1 day

confirmedQ3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+1.70%

vs ±5.2% implied · ×0.32

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 3 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

100.00%

of Septerna revenue

supplierSEPN 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+1.02%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

1,765 managers

Top fund weight

2.19%

VRTX weight · XLV

N-PORTJun 30 '26

14 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) reports on Nov 2 after close (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±5.2%
avg realized: ±6.1%

Nov 4 '24Nov 4 '24confirmed±4.5%▲+5.73%×1.28

Feb 10 '25Feb 10 '25confirmed±4.5%▼−3.14%×0.70

May 5 '25May 5 '25confirmed±4.0%▼−10.03%×2.50

Aug 4 '25Aug 4 '25confirmed±5.6%▼−20.60%×3.65

Q3 FY25Nov 3 '25confirmed±6.0%▼−1.02%×0.17

Feb 12 '26Feb 12 '26confirmed±6.0%▲+5.69%×0.95

Q1 FY26May 4 '26confirmed±5.4%▼−1.28%×0.24

Q2 FY26Aug 3 '26confirmed±5.2%▲+1.70%×0.32

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q2 FY26±5.2%▲+1.70%×0.32

Q1 FY26±5.4%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.71OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 6 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

386+2%Nov 65d226+8%

2970%Nov 1312d1.56190+8%1.56

1,241+11%Nov 2019d0.791,5760%0.79

319+406%Nov 2726d4.9165+76%4.91

159+1%Dec 433d1.9283+118%1.92

5 later expiries

0—Dec 1140d—0——

5,731+10%Dec 1847d1.11

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 65d386+2%226+8%1.71

Nov 1312d2970%190+8%1.56

Nov 2019d1,241+11%1,5760%0.79

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±4.8%

Funds 4

XLV±0.1%

JEPI±0.1%

XBI±0.1%

QQQ±0.0%

Suppliers 3

EDIT±4.9%×1.03

CRSP±3.0%×0.64

TRDA±2.7%

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 500dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

32.99%as filednet margin · revenue +11.62% QoQ · +12.45% YoY

Revenue

$3.3B+11.62% QoQ

Gross profit

$2.8B+9.66% QoQ

85.33% margin

Operating income

$1.2B+9.56% QoQ

37.40% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.4B+11.09% QoQ

Net income

$1.1B+6.63% QoQ

32.99% margin

Cost of revenue

$489M+24.54% QoQ

Operating expenses

$1.6B+9.74% QoQ

R&D $1.0B

SG&A $582M

Tax

$292M+31.83% QoQ

Other income

$145M+26.22% QoQ

Revenue$3.3B+11.62%

Gross profit

$2.8B+9.66%

85.33% margin

Operating income

$1.2B+9.56%

37.40% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.4B+11.09%

Net income

$1.1B+6.63%

32.99% margin

Cost of revenue

$489M+24.54%

Operating expenses

$1.6B+9.74%

R&D $1.0B

SG&A $582M

Other income$145M+26.22%

Tax$292M+31.83%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.59· ±2.0% vs ±1.3% · 25 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±2.0%12 of 25×1.59

CPIconsumer prices±1.9%4 of 11×1.50

NFPjobs report±1.6%4 of 10×1.27

PPIproducer prices±1.6%6 of 11×1.27

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.4%10 of 20×1.14

GDPgross domestic product±1.0%12 of 20×0.80

CPROFcorporate profits±0.9%8 of 12×0.73

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.3% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.3% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 4.31 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 3 '26 · confirmed	4.31	—
Q1 FY26	May 4 '26 · confirmed	4.02	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 3 '25 · confirmed	4.20	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod