What move does the options market price into Toll Brothers's report?

Implied ±6.3%, either direction.

TOLNYSEOperative Builders

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

145.98

+1.71 · +1.18%

Closed15:59 ET

Open144.27Volume1.4MMkt cap$13.4BP/E11.71EPS12.47Div yield0.71%

Day143.79 – 145.97100%52-wk122.69 – 167.4352%

TOL

Toll Brothers, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±6.3%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±4.0%·×1.57·rich

136.69155.21

straddle ±9.5%

spot 145.95exp Dec 18ATM strike 145ATM straddle 16.25IV 38%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Dec 7

after close · in 38 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+4.00%

vs ±5.3% implied · ×0.76

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 18 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

72dAII · supplierAmerican Integrity Insurance (AII) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+5.69%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

808 managers

Top fund weight

0.43%

TOL weight · MDY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Toll Brothers (TOL) is expected to report on Dec 7 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

—≥ implied

Dec 9 '24Dec 9 '24confirmed—▼−6.95%—

Feb 18 '25Feb 18 '25confirmed—▼−5.87%—

May 20 '25May 20 '25confirmed—▼−0.48%—

Aug 19 '25Aug 19 '25confirmed—▼−0.57%—

Dec 8 '25Dec 8 '25confirmed—▼−2.36%—

Q1 FY26Feb 17 '26confirmed—▼−2.34%—

Q2 FY26May 19 '26confirmed—▲+9.80%—

Q3 FY26Aug 18 '26confirmed±5.3%▲+4.00%×0.76

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q3 FY26±5.3%▲+4.00%×0.76

Q2 FY26—▲+9.80%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 27 close

0.93OI · 4 expiries · Oct 27 closeP/C open interest · Dec 18 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

913+5%Nov 2021d0.561,631+13%0.56

report · Dec 7 · after close · est.

1,4530%Dec 1849d1,5620%

8,996+1%Jan 1577d2.254,0030%2.25

1,2340%Mar 19140d1.826770%1.82

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2021d913+5%1,631+13%0.56

report · Dec 7 · after close · est.

Dec 1849d1,4530%1,5620%0.93

Jan 1577d8,996+1%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±9.5%

Funds 4

MDY±0.0%

REVS±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

10.54%as filednet margin · revenue +5.04% QoQ · −9.72% YoY

Revenue

$2.7B+5.04% QoQ

Gross profit

$625M+3.36% QoQ

23.52% margin

Operating income

$359M+3.61% QoQ

13.51% margin

Pre-tax income

$375M+6.97% QoQ

Net income

$280M+7.50% QoQ

10.54% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.0B+5.57% QoQ

Operating expenses

$266M+3.03% QoQ

Tax

$95M+5.43% QoQ

Other income

$16M+320.21% QoQ

Revenue$2.7B+5.04%

Gross profit

$625M+3.36%

23.52% margin

Operating income

$359M+3.61%

13.51% margin

Pre-tax income

$375M+6.97%

Net income

$280M+7.50%

10.54% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.0B+5.57%

Operating expenses

$266M+3.03%

Other income$16M+320.21%

Tax$95M+5.43%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jul 31 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 15:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.33· ±2.2% vs ±1.7% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±2.2%11 of 24×1.33

PPIproducer prices±1.9%4 of 10×1.14

CPIconsumer prices±1.7%6 of 10×1.04

NFPjobs report±1.5%5 of 10×0.90

GDPgross domestic product±1.3%8 of 19×0.78

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.2%8 of 19×0.72

CPROFcorporate profits±1.1%5 of 12×0.64

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.7% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.7% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.97 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Aug 18 '26 · confirmed	2.97	—
Q2 FY26	May 19 '26 · confirmed	2.72	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 17 '26 · confirmed	2.19	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod