What move does the options market price into Scotts Miracle-Gro's report?

Implied ±5.9%, either direction.

SMGNYSEAgricultural Chemicals

Scotts Miracle-Gro Co (SMG) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

63.59

+1.35 · +2.17%

Regular session14:43 ET

Open61.80Volume1.5MMkt cap$3.6BP/E50.87EPS1.25Div yield4.24%

Day61.80 – 62.60100%52-wk47.90 – 74.5359%

SMG

Scotts Miracle-Gro Co

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±5.9%implied · report alone

58.5665.92

straddle ±8.2%

spot 62.24exp Nov 20ATM strike 62.5ATM straddle 5.98IV 50%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 4

before open · in 2 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−3.79%

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Jul 29 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

23dHD · customer/C O R R E C T I O N -- The Home Depot/
39dLOW · customerLowe's is launching a drone delivery service in partnership with DoorDash, Alphabet

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+22.90%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26125d lag

465 managers

Top fund weight

0.08%

SMG weight · MDY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) is expected to report on Nov 4 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

1 report

—≥ implied

Q3 FY26Jul 29 '26confirmed—▼−3.79%—

quarterimplied−5%0+5%realized×

Q3 FY26—▼−3.79%—

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 29 close

0.23OI · 4 expiries · Oct 29 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

534+1%Nov 2018d2,3600%

767−1%Dec 1846d0.601,2730%0.60

1,3920%Jan 1574d0.353,9880%0.35

4530%Mar 19137d0.391,1480%0.39

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2018d534+1%2,3600%0.23

Dec 1846d767−1%1,2730%0.60

Jan 1574d1,3920%3,9880%0.35

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±8.2%

Funds 4

MDY±0.0%

REVS±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

9.57%as filednet margin · revenue −19.69% QoQ · +1.10% YoY

Revenue

$1.2B−19.69% QoQ

Gross profit

$366M−40.07% QoQ

31.22% margin

Operating income

$170M−57.79% QoQ

14.47% margin

Pre-tax income

$155M−57.47% QoQ

Net income

$112M−52.98% QoQ

9.57% margin

Cost of revenue

$806M−5.04% QoQ

Operating expenses

$196M−5.94% QoQ

SG&A $146M

Other operating $4M

Other operating $47M

Other expense

$14M

Tax

$52M−49.21% QoQ

Revenue$1.2B−19.69%

Gross profit

$366M−40.07%

31.22% margin

Operating income

$170M−57.79%

14.47% margin

Pre-tax income

$155M−57.47%

Net income

$112M−52.98%

9.57% margin

Cost of revenue

$806M−5.04%

Operating expenses

$196M−5.94%

SG&A $146M

Other operating $4M

Other operating $47M

Other expense

$14M

Tax$52M−49.21%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 27 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 17:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.99· ±3.7% vs ±1.9% · 25 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±3.7%10 of 25×1.99

PPIproducer prices±2.8%7 of 11×1.48

GDPgross domestic product±2.1%9 of 19×1.15

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.7%7 of 19×0.93

CPROFcorporate profits±1.4%5 of 12×0.77

NFPjobs report±1.2%7 of 10×0.62

CPIconsumer prices±1.1%5 of 11×0.61

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±1.9% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.9% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.90 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Jul 29 '26 · confirmed	1.90	—
Q2 FY26	—	4.04	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod