What move does the options market price into J M Smucker's report?

Implied ±4.2%, either direction.

How often does J M Smucker move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

SJMNYSECanned, Fruits, Veg, Preserves, Jams & Jellies

J M Smucker Co (SJM) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

127.96

−0.02 · −0.01%

post 132.39 +3.46%

After hours15:59 ETdelayed

Open130.53Volume1.8MMkt cap$13.7BDiv yield3.45%

Day130.53 – 133.6959%52-wk86.47 – 135.8993%

SJM

J M Smucker Co

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±4.2%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±6.6%·×0.64·cheap

126.54137.76

straddle ±7.7%

spot 132.15exp Dec 18ATM strike 130ATM straddle 11.95IV 33%

Nov 4 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 24

before open · in 20 days

confirmedQ2 FY27

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+4.34%

vs ±6.4% implied · ×0.68

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 26 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

34.00%

of SJM revenue · Walmart Inc. and subsidiaries, including Sam's Club

customerSJM 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+8.89%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

887 managers

Top fund weight

0.78%

SJM weight · XLP

N-PORTJun 30 '26

8 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

J M Smucker (SJM) reports on Nov 24 before open (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±5.7%
avg realized: ±6.6%

Nov 26 '24Nov 26 '24confirmed±5.8%▲+5.69%×0.98

Feb 27 '25Feb 27 '25confirmed±5.9%▼−0.02%×0.00

Jun 10 '25Jun 10 '25confirmed±4.5%▼−15.59%×3.48

Aug 27 '25Aug 27 '25confirmed±5.5%▼−4.44%×0.81

Q2 FY26Nov 25 '25confirmed±5.8%▼−3.73%×0.64

Q3 FY26Feb 26 '26confirmed±5.7%▲+8.82%×1.56

Jun 9 '26Jun 9 '26confirmed±5.8%▲+10.44%×1.79

Q1 FY27Aug 26 '26confirmed±6.4%▲+4.34%×0.68

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q1 FY27±6.4%▲+4.34%×0.68

Jun '26±5.8%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.33OI · 4 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Dec 18 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

1,4620%Nov 2016d1.121,310+2%1.12

report · Nov 24 · before open · confirmed

96+14%Dec 1844d291+14%

3,2660%Jan 1572d0.655,0200%0.65

4,7800%Apr 16163d8.16586+2%8.16

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d1,4620%1,310+2%1.12

report · Nov 24 · before open · confirmed

Dec 1844d96+14%291+14%0.33

Jan 1572d3,2660%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±7.7%

Funds 4

XLP±0.1%

RSP±0.0%

FB±0.0%

SPY±0.0%

Suppliers 1

KDP±2.8%×0.37

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 499dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ1 FY27

14.61%as filednet margin · revenue +5.02% YoY

Revenue

$2.2B

Gross profit

$980M

44.14% margin

Operating income

$512M

23.05% margin

Pre-tax income

$428M

Net income

$324M

14.61% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.2B

Operating expenses

$468M

SG&A $411M

Other operating $58M

Other expense

$84M

Tax

$104M

Revenue$2.2B

Gross profit

$980M

44.14% margin

Operating income

$512M

23.05% margin

Pre-tax income

$428M

Net income

$324M

14.61% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.2B

Operating expenses

$468M

SG&A $411M

Other operating $58M

Other expense

$84M

Tax$104M

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jul 31 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mVolume ×1.02 · 20d avgSource: market data · 15:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.21· ±1.5% vs ±1.2% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±1.5%8 of 24×1.21

CPROFcorporate profits±1.5%7 of 12×1.20

NFPjobs report±1.4%6 of 10×1.17

GDPgross domestic product±1.4%12 of 19×1.15

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.3%12 of 19×1.04

CPIconsumer prices±1.3%6 of 10×1.04

PPIproducer prices±1.3%6 of 10×1.03

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.2% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.2% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 3.03 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q1 FY27	Aug 26 '26 · confirmed	3.03	—
Q3 FY26	Feb 26 '26 · confirmed	-6.79	—
Q2 FY26	Nov 25 '25 · confirmed	2.26	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod