What move does the options market price into Sprouts Farmers Market's report?

Implied ±20.1%, either direction · provisional.

SFMNasdaqRetail-Grocery Stores

Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

54.39

+1.90 · +3.61%

post 54.46 +0.13%

Closed19:19 ET

Open52.57Volume4.9MMkt cap$4.8BP/E10.37EPS5.25

Day52.57 – 55.2571%52-wk47.35 – 94.8915%

SFM

Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±20.1%implied · straddle

43.4865.32

spot 54.40exp Mar 19ATM strike 55ATM straddle 12.85IV 49%

Nov 4 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 18

after close · in 106 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−22.58%

vs ±11.0% implied · ×2.05

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 28 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

5hDASH · supplierDoorDash CEO to Participate in Fireside Chat at TomorrowX Summit
6hUBER · supplierUber posts Q3 revenue $14,766 million, net income $569 million, diluted EPS $0.25

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+1.13%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

648 managers

Top fund weight

0.22%

SFM weight · MDY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) is expected to report on Feb 18 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

2 reports

—≥ implied

Q2 FY26Jul 29 '26confirmed—▲+9.71%—

Q3 FY26Oct 28 '26confirmed±11.0%▼−22.58%×2.05

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q3 FY26±11.0%▼−22.58%×2.05

Q2 FY26—▲+9.71%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 27 close

0.70OI · 4 expiries · Oct 27 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

7,185+20%Nov 2016d1.385,199+6%1.38

3,353+5%Dec 1844d1.033,243+3%1.03

9,5690%Jan 1572d0.5617,1310%0.56

report · Feb 18 · after close · est.

1,677+1%Mar 19135d2,390+1%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d7,185+20%5,199+6%1.38

Dec 1844d3,353+5%3,243+3%1.03

Jan 1572d9,5690%17,1310%0.56

report · Feb 18 · after close · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±20.1%

Funds 3

MDY±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

4.92%as filednet margin · revenue −0.91% QoQ · +4.74% YoY

Revenue

$2.3B−0.91% QoQ

Gross profit

$881M−2.20% QoQ

38.22% margin

Operating income

$153M−12.28% QoQ

6.63% margin

Pre-tax income

$151M−13.06% QoQ

Net income

$113M−12.21% QoQ

4.92% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.4B−0.09% QoQ

Operating expenses

$728M+0.21% QoQ

SG&A $683M

Depreciation $45M

Other expense

$1M

Tax

$38M−15.51% QoQ

Revenue$2.3B−0.91%

Gross profit

$881M−2.20%

38.22% margin

Operating income

$153M−12.28%

6.63% margin

Pre-tax income

$151M−13.06%

Net income

$113M−12.21%

4.92% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.4B−0.09%

Operating expenses

$728M+0.21%

SG&A $683M

Depreciation $45M

Other expense

$1M

Tax$38M−15.51%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 27 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 19:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

GDP ×2.36· ±4.2% vs ±1.8% · 20 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

GDPgross domestic product±4.2%7 of 20×2.36

PCEpersonal income & outlays±4.0%10 of 20×2.25

CPIconsumer prices±2.3%8 of 11×1.31

FOMCrate decision±2.1%10 of 24×1.20

PPIproducer prices±2.0%6 of 11×1.15

CPROFcorporate profits±2.0%3 of 12×1.15

NFPjobs report±2.0%7 of 10×1.12

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±1.8% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.8% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.21 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 28 '26 · confirmed	1.21	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 29 '26 · confirmed	1.37	—
Q1 FY26	—	1.71	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod