What move does the options market price into Starbucks's report?

Implied ±11.1%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Starbucks move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

SBUXNasdaqRetail-Eating & Drinking Places

Starbucks Corp (SBUX) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

104.73

+0.33 · +0.31%

post 104.22 −0.48%

After hours19:17 ETdelayed

Open104.35Volume6.7MMkt cap$119.4BP/E59.90EPS1.74Div yield2.37%

Day103.12 – 104.7368%52-wk76.05 – 109.8883%

SBUX

Starbucks Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±11.1%implied · straddle

93.12116.42

spot 104.77exp Feb 19ATM strike 105ATM straddle 13.70IV 30%

Nov 3 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 27

before open · in 85 days

est.Q1 FY27

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−1.74%

vs ±4.5% implied · ×0.38

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 29 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

2.60%

of Curbline Properties revenue

supplierCURB 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−0.33%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

2,422 managers

Top fund weight

2.90%

SBUX weight · XLY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

12 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Starbucks (SBUX) is expected to report on Jan 27 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±5.7%
avg realized: ±3.5%

Jan 28 '25Jan 28 '25confirmed±5.8%▲+8.14%×1.41

Apr 29 '25Apr 29 '25confirmed±6.2%▼−5.66%×0.91

Jul 29 '25Jul 29 '25confirmed±5.9%▼−0.22%×0.04

Oct 29 '25Oct 29 '25confirmed±6.4%▼−1.21%×0.19

Jan 28 '26Jan 28 '26confirmed±6.3%▼−0.59%×0.09

Q2 FY26Apr 28 '26confirmed±5.4%▲+8.45%×1.56

Q3 FY26Jul 29 '26confirmed±4.9%▲+1.64%×0.34

Oct 29 '26Oct 29 '26confirmed±4.5%▼−1.74%×0.38

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Oct '26±4.5%▼−1.74%×0.38

Q3 FY26±4.9%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 11 expiries · Nov 2 close

0.76OI · 11 expiries · Nov 2 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

11,835+9%Nov 63d2.005,922+34%2.00

2,671+3%Nov 1310d1.401,905+16%1.40

31,961+3%Nov 2017d1.0729,911+1%1.07

764+72%Nov 2724d0.691,107+53%0.69

20+18%Dec 431d0.08243+11%0.08

44+450%Dec 1138d1.1339+179%1.13

49,737+2%Dec 1845d0.8360,074+9%0.83

85,8500%Jan 1573d1.1276,700+1%1.12

report · Jan 27 · before open · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 63d11,835+9%5,922+34%2.00

Nov 1310d2,671+3%1,905+16%1.40

Nov 2017d31,961+3%29,911

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±11.1%

Funds 4

XLY±0.3%

REVS±0.1%

VIG±0.1%

QQQ±0.1%

Suppliers 2

CURB±2.1%×0.19

PECO±2.1%×0.19

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 499dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

11.21%as filednet margin · revenue −2.19% QoQ · −1.41% YoY

Revenue

$9.3B−2.19% QoQ

Gross profit

$2.3B+19.97% QoQ

24.64% margin

Operating income

$980M+26.13% QoQ

10.52% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.4B+94.93% QoQ

Net income

$1.0B+104.56% QoQ

11.21% margin

Cost of revenue

$7.0B−7.76% QoQ

Operating expenses

$1.3B+15.76% QoQ

SG&A $731M

Depreciation $362M

Other operating $224M

Tax

$374M+72.30% QoQ

Other income

$439M+992.07% QoQ

Revenue$9.3B−2.19%

Gross profit

$2.3B+19.97%

24.64% margin

Operating income

$980M+26.13%

10.52% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.4B+94.93%

Net income

$1.0B+104.56%

11.21% margin

Cost of revenue

$7.0B−7.76%

Operating expenses

$1.3B+15.76%

SG&A $731M

Depreciation $362M

Other operating $224M

Other income$439M+992.07%

Tax$374M+72.30%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 28 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.74· ±2.3% vs ±1.3% · 25 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±2.3%11 of 25×1.74

PPIproducer prices±1.7%5 of 11×1.28

CPIconsumer prices±1.4%7 of 11×1.09

GDPgross domestic product±1.4%9 of 20×1.07

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.4%8 of 20×1.04

CPROFcorporate profits±1.2%4 of 12×0.90

NFPjobs report±0.8%7 of 10×0.58

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.3% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.3% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.91 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Jul 29 '26 · confirmed	0.91	—
Q2 FY26	Apr 28 '26 · confirmed	0.45	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod