What move does the options market price into Phillips 66's report?

Implied ±16.3%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Phillips 66 move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

PSXNYSEPetroleum Refining

Phillips 66 (PSX) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

282.79

+9.18 · +3.35%

post 283.00 +0.07%

Closed19:20 ET

Open276.73Volume3.7MMkt cap$110.3BP/E9.01EPS31.40Div yield1.77%

Day276.12 – 283.8289%52-wk124.55 – 299.3991%

PSX

Phillips 66

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±16.3%implied · straddle

236.76328.90

spot 282.83exp Feb 19ATM strike 280ATM straddle 54.20IV 44%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 3

before open · in 95 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+1.95%

vs ±3.8% implied · ×0.51

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 28 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

12dCHRD · supplierChord Energy Provides Preliminary 3Q26 Operational and Financial Results
22dVIVK · supplierVIVK trading halt (LUDP) · resumed 09:56 ET

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+0.74%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

2,118 managers

Top fund weight

4.07%

PSX weight · XLE

N-PORTJun 30 '26

11 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Phillips 66 (PSX) is expected to report on Feb 3 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±3.2%
avg realized: ±2.4%

Apr 25 '25Apr 25 '25confirmed±2.3%▼−0.69%×0.30

Jul 25 '25Jul 25 '25confirmed±3.0%▲+0.52%×0.17

Q3 FY25Oct 29 '25confirmed±2.9%▲+3.25%×1.12

Feb 4 '26Feb 4 '26confirmed±3.1%▲+4.46%×1.44

Q1 FY26Apr 6 '26confirmed±3.1%▼−1.48%×0.47

Apr 29 '26Apr 29 '26confirmed±3.5%▲+5.06%×1.45

Q2 FY26Aug 5 '26confirmed±3.4%▼−1.62%×0.48

Q3 FY26Oct 28 '26confirmed±3.8%▲+1.95%×0.51

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q3 FY26±3.8%▲+1.95%×0.51

Q2 FY26±3.4%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.67OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

718+25%Nov 66d0.721,003+23%0.72

270+4%Nov 1313d0.61443+9%0.61

7,856+10%Nov 2020d1.097,225+1%1.09

276+463%Nov 2727d1.52181+97%1.52

19+90%Dec 434d0.8323+77%0.83

4—Dec 1141d4.001—4.00

6,9830%Dec 1848d0.838,431+1%0.83

8,2750%Jan 1576d0.938,929+1%0.93

report · Feb 3 · before open · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 66d718+25%1,003+23%0.72

Nov 1313d270+4%443+9%0.61

Nov 2020d7,856+10%7,225

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±16.3%

Funds 4

XLE±0.7%

REVS±0.1%

VIG±0.1%

VTV±0.0%

Suppliers 3

MUR±14.5%×0.89

EPM±7.4%×0.46

NVGS±4.3%×0.26

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

10.95%as filednet margin · revenue −0.48% QoQ · +47.29% YoY

Revenue

$51.5B−0.48% QoQ

Gross profit

$10.7B+32.12% QoQ

20.76% margin

Operating income

$7.4B+46.73% QoQ

14.27% margin

Pre-tax income

$7.1B+42.99% QoQ

Net income

$5.6B+45.37% QoQ

10.95% margin

Cost of revenue

$40.8B−6.53% QoQ

Operating expenses

$3.3B+8.37% QoQ

SG&A $2.5B

Depreciation $591M

Other operating $212M

Other operating $45M

Other expense

$243M

Tax

$1.5B+34.52% QoQ

Revenue$51.5B−0.48%

Gross profit

$10.7B+32.12%

20.76% margin

Operating income

$7.4B+46.73%

14.27% margin

Pre-tax income

$7.1B+42.99%

Net income

$5.6B+45.37%

10.95% margin

Cost of revenue

$40.8B−6.53%

Operating expenses

$3.3B+8.37%

SG&A $2.5B

Depreciation $591M

Other operating $212M

Other expense

$243M

Tax$1.5B+34.52%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.20· ±1.7% vs ±1.4% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±1.7%4 of 11×1.20

NFPjobs report±1.6%5 of 10×1.13

FOMCrate decision±1.6%17 of 25×1.12

CPIconsumer prices±1.5%8 of 11×1.05

CPROFcorporate profits±1.4%10 of 12×0.97

GDPgross domestic product±1.3%14 of 20×0.92

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.2%11 of 20×0.87

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 14.08 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 28 '26 · confirmed	14.08	—
Q2 FY26	Aug 5 '26 · confirmed	9.55	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 6 '26 · confirmed	0.51	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 29 '25 · confirmed	0.32	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod