What move does the options market price into Pfizer's report?

Implied ±2.7%, either direction.

How often does Pfizer move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

PFENYSEPharmaceutical Preparations

Pfizer Inc (PFE) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

30.50

+0.55 · +1.83%

post 30.46 −0.13%

Closed19:12 ET

Open30.26Volume45.5MMkt cap$174.0BP/E39.56EPS0.77Div yield5.64%

Day30.23 – 30.6160%52-wk22.58 – 30.6797%

PFE

Pfizer Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±2.7%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±2.2%·×1.21·rich

29.6931.35

straddle ±3.7%

spot 30.52exp Nov 6ATM strike 30.5ATM straddle 1.34IV 40%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 3

before open · in 3 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+1.52%

vs ±3.3% implied · ×0.46

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 4 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

12.00%

of Nektar Therapeutics revenue

supplierNKTR 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+2.92%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

2,848 managers

Top fund weight

2.39%

PFE weight · XLV

N-PORTJun 30 '26

9 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Pfizer (PFE) is expected to report on Nov 3 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±3.6%
avg realized: ±2.2%

Oct 29 '24Oct 29 '24confirmed±3.4%▼−1.39%×0.41

Feb 4 '25Feb 4 '25confirmed±3.5%▼−1.26%×0.36

Apr 29 '25Apr 29 '25confirmed±3.4%▲+3.21%×0.96

Aug 5 '25Aug 5 '25confirmed±4.1%▲+5.19%×1.28

Q3 FY25Nov 4 '25confirmed±4.2%▼−1.46%×0.35

Feb 3 '26Feb 3 '26confirmed±3.2%▼−3.34%×1.05

Q1 FY26May 5 '26confirmed±3.5%▲+0.57%×0.16

Q2 FY26Aug 4 '26confirmed±3.3%▲+1.52%×0.46

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q2 FY26±3.3%▲+1.52%×0.46

Q1 FY26±3.5%▲+0.57%×0.16

Feb '26±3.2%▼−3.34%×1.05

Q3 FY25±4.2%▼−1.46%×0.35

Aug '25±4.1%▲+5.19%×1.28

Apr '25±3.4%▲+3.21%×0.96

2 older reports

Feb '25±3.5%▼−1.26%×0.36

Oct '24±3.4%▼−1.39%×0.41

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 9 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.62OI · 9 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 6 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

17,438+2%Nov 66d28,320+3%

6,926−1%Nov 1313d0.6410,813+17%0.64

107,594+1%Nov 2020d0.77139,696+1%0.77

1,290+40%Nov 2727d0.225,881+11%0.22

291−6%Dec 434d0.48602+36%0.48

4 later expiries

0—Dec 1141d—0——

177,6690%Dec 1848d0.75236,819+1%0.75

311,997+1%Jan 1576d0.99313,7860%0.99

80,8420%Mar 19139d1.1073,4010%1.10

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 66d17,438+2%28,320+3%0.62

Nov 1313d6,926−1%10,813+17%0.64

Nov 2020d107,594+1%139,696+1%0.77

Nov 2727d1,290+40%5,881+11%0.22

Dec 434d291−6%602+36%0.48

4 later expiries

Dec 1141d0—0——

Dec 1848d177,6690%236,819+1%0.75

Jan 1576d311,997+1%313,7860%0.99

Mar 19139d80,8420%73,4010%1.10

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±3.7%

Funds 4

XLV±0.1%

VTV±0.0%

SPY±0.0%

VOO±0.0%

Suppliers 1

ARVN±3.4%×0.91

Customers 1

ICUI±1.8%×0.48

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−1.58%as filednet margin · revenue +4.03% QoQ · +2.60% YoY

Revenue$15.0B+4.03%

Gross profit$10.9B72.78%+0.36%

Operating income$3.1B20.38%−24.01%

Pre-tax income−$653M−120.60%

Net income−$237M−1.58%−108.79%

Cost of revenue$4.1B+15.33%

Operating expenses$7.9B+14.66%

Tax−$407M−188.29%

Other expense−$3.7B−331.59%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 28 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.36· ±1.5% vs ±1.1% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±1.5%6 of 10×1.36

PPIproducer prices±1.4%7 of 10×1.20

FOMCrate decision±1.3%6 of 24×1.18

GDPgross domestic product±1.2%5 of 19×1.06

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.1%9 of 19×0.93

CPROFcorporate profits±1.0%2 of 12×0.91

CPIconsumer prices±0.5%4 of 10×0.48

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.04 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 4 '26 · confirmed	-0.04	—
Q1 FY26	May 5 '26 · confirmed	0.47	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 4 '25 · confirmed	0.62	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod