What move does the options market price into NRG Energy's report?

Implied ±5.7%, either direction.

How often does NRG Energy move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

NRGNYSEElectric Services

NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

83.23

−13.04 · −13.54%

post 83.80 +0.69%

Closed19:55 ET

Open96.40Volume3.9MMkt cap$20.2BP/E21.77EPS3.85Div yield1.97%

Day82.28 – 96.4211%52-wk90.35 – 187.780%

NRG

NRG Energy, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±5.7%implied · straddle

8Q avg ±9.6%·×0.60·cheap

90.76101.76

spot 96.26exp Nov 6ATM strike 96ATM straddle 6.47IV 93%

Nov 3 close

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Today

before open

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−15.48%

vs ±6.7% implied · ×2.32

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 4 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

8dCNP · supplierCenterPoint Energy Q3 net income $331 million, GAAP EPS $0.50; raises 2026 non-GAAP EPS to $1.90-$1.92

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+7.53%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

1,024 managers

Top fund weight

2.17%

NRG weight · XLU

N-PORTJun 30 '26

9 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

NRG Energy (NRG) is expected to report on Nov 5 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±6.6%
avg realized: ±9.6%

Nov 8 '24Nov 8 '24confirmed±7.0%▼−0.27%×0.04

Feb 26 '25Feb 26 '25confirmed±9.2%▲+10.63%×1.16

May 12 '25May 12 '25confirmed±4.7%▲+26.21%×5.53

Aug 6 '25Aug 6 '25confirmed±6.2%▼−13.61%×2.20

Nov 6 '25Nov 6 '25confirmed±6.8%▼−1.78%×0.26

Q1 FY26Feb 24 '26confirmed±6.9%▲+4.25%×0.61

May 6 '26May 6 '26confirmed±5.7%▼−4.31%×0.76

Q2 FY26Aug 4 '26confirmed±6.7%▼−15.48%×2.32

quarterimplied−30%0+30%realized×

Q2 FY26±6.7%▼−15.48%×2.32

May '26±5.7%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 8 expiries · Nov 4 close

2.70OI · 8 expiries · Nov 4 closeP/C open interest · Nov 6 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

17,745+11%Nov 61d6,566+11%

2,738+6%Nov 138d0.693,983+55%0.69

8,272+36%Nov 2015d0.5016,689−5%0.50

457+5%Nov 2722d2.58177+21%2.58

118+28%Dec 429d1.04113+61%1.04

3 later expiries

15,407+2%Dec 1843d0.3939,458+1%0.39

20,495−1%Jan 1571d2.42

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 61d17,745+11%6,566+11%2.70

Nov 138d2,738+6%3,983+55%0.69

Nov 2015d8,272+36%16,689−5%0.50

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±5.7%

Funds 4

XLU±0.1%

RSP±0.0%

FTC±0.0%

SPY±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

6.76%as filednet margin · revenue −27.06% QoQ · +10.99% YoY

Revenue

$7.5B−27.06% QoQ

Gross profit

$2.0B+43.85% QoQ

26.88% margin

Operating income

$976M+197.56% QoQ

13.05% margin

Pre-tax income

$663M+698.80% QoQ

Net income

$506M+304.80% QoQ

6.76% margin

Cost of revenue

$5.5B−38.25% QoQ

Operating expenses

$1.0B−3.27% QoQ

SG&A $562M

Depreciation $494M

Other expense

$313M

Tax

$157M+473.81% QoQ

Revenue$7.5B−27.06%

Gross profit

$2.0B+43.85%

26.88% margin

Operating income

$976M+197.56%

13.05% margin

Pre-tax income

$663M+698.80%

Net income

$506M+304.80%

6.76% margin

Cost of revenue

$5.5B−38.25%

Operating expenses

$1.0B−3.27%

SG&A $562M

Depreciation $494M

Other expense

$313M

Tax$157M+473.81%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.40· ±2.8% vs ±2.0% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±2.8%4 of 10×1.40

CPIconsumer prices±2.7%7 of 10×1.34

GDPgross domestic product±2.6%13 of 19×1.29

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.0%13 of 19×0.99

FOMCrate decision±1.8%17 of 24×0.90

PPIproducer prices±1.7%3 of 10×0.85

CPROFcorporate profits±1.6%7 of 12×0.80

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±2.0% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.0% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.31 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 4 '26 · confirmed	2.31	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 24 '26 · confirmed	0.52	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod