What move does the options market price into NOV's report?

Implied ±13.3%, either direction · provisional.

NOVNYSEOil & Gas Field Machinery & Equipment

NOV Inc. (NOV) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

19.29

−0.07 · −0.37%

post 19.29 −0.01%

Closed16:00 ET

Open19.51Volume3.9MMkt cap$6.9BP/E47.04EPS0.41Div yield1.87%

Day19.04 – 19.6540%52-wk13.98 – 21.8468%

NOV

NOV Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±13.3%implied · straddle

16.7221.86

spot 19.29exp Feb 19ATM strike 19ATM straddle 3.02IV 36%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 4

before open · in 96 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−6.23%

vs ±16.2% implied · ×0.38

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 28 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

filed ties

13F top-10 QoQ

+0.51%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

488 managers

Top fund weight

0.18%

NOV weight · MDY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

NOV (NOV) is expected to report on Feb 4 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

2 reports

—≥ implied

Q2 FY26Jul 29 '26confirmed—▼−3.83%—

Q3 FY26Oct 28 '26confirmed±16.2%▼−6.23%×0.38

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q3 FY26±16.2%▼−6.23%×0.38

Q2 FY26—▼−3.83%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 26 close

0.39OI · 4 expiries · Oct 26 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

4250%Nov 2020d0.0314,0550%0.03

30%Dec 1848d0.015490%0.01

7510%Jan 1576d0.145,3530%0.14

report · Feb 4 · before open · est.

260−9%Feb 19111d6600%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2020d4250%14,0550%0.03

Dec 1848d30%5490%0.01

Jan 1576d7510%5,3530%0.14

report · Feb 4 · before open · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±13.3%

Funds 4

MDY±0.0%

REVS±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

4.27%as filednet margin · revenue +4.31% QoQ · +2.30% YoY

Revenue

$2.2B+4.31% QoQ

Gross profit

$439M−15.74% QoQ

19.72% margin

Operating income

$142M−26.42% QoQ

6.38% margin

Pre-tax income

$123M−21.66% QoQ

Net income

$95M−18.10% QoQ

4.27% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.8B+10.79% QoQ

Operating expenses

$297M−9.45% QoQ

Other expense

$19M

Tax

$28M−31.71% QoQ

Revenue$2.2B+4.31%

Gross profit

$439M−15.74%

19.72% margin

Operating income

$142M−26.42%

6.38% margin

Pre-tax income

$123M−21.66%

Net income

$95M−18.10%

4.27% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.8B+10.79%

Operating expenses

$297M−9.45%

Other expense

$19M

Tax$28M−31.71%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.30· ±2.2% vs ±1.7% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±2.2%1 of 10×1.30

FOMCrate decision±1.9%9 of 24×1.11

CPIconsumer prices±1.4%6 of 11×0.81

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.3%8 of 19×0.78

CPROFcorporate profits±1.2%9 of 12×0.71

GDPgross domestic product±1.2%12 of 19×0.70

PPIproducer prices±1.0%3 of 11×0.57

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.7% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.7% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.25 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 28 '26 · confirmed	0.25	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 29 '26 · confirmed	0.31	—
Q1 FY26	—	0.05	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod