What move does the options market price into National Fuel Gas's report?

Implied ±4.3%, either direction.

NFGNYSENatural Gas Distribution

National Fuel Gas Co (NFG) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

79.52

Closed16:00 ET

Open79.60Volume1.0MMkt cap$7.6BDiv yield2.74%

Day79.34 – 79.8635%52-wk74.10 – 95.3426%

NFG

National Fuel Gas Co

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±4.3%implied · report alone

76.1083.00

straddle ±5.4%

spot 79.55exp Nov 20ATM strike 80ATM straddle 5.07IV 33%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

before open · in 4 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+1.89%

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Jul 30 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+5.02%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

652 managers

Top fund weight

0.20%

NFG weight · MDY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

National Fuel Gas (NFG) is expected to report on Nov 5 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

1 report

—≥ implied

Q3 FY26Jul 30 '26confirmed—▲+1.89%—

quarterimplied−5%0+5%realized×

Q3 FY26—▲+1.89%—

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 22 close

0.05OI · 4 expiries · Oct 22 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

71−5%Nov 2019d1,370+2%

2+100%Dec 1847d0.00601+3%0.00

2,1040%Jan 1575d4.51467−1%4.51

55+8%Apr 16166d0.5994+16%0.59

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2019d71−5%1,370+2%0.05

Dec 1847d2+100%601+3%0.00

Jan 1575d2,1040%467−1%4.51

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±5.4%

Funds 4

MDY±0.0%

VIG±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

25.79%as filednet margin · revenue −37.38% QoQ · +1.07% YoY

Revenue

$537M−37.38% QoQ

Gross profit

$352M−28.32% QoQ

65.58% margin

Operating income

$209M−39.81% QoQ

38.87% margin

Pre-tax income

$185M−44.07% QoQ

Net income

$139M−44.03% QoQ

25.79% margin

Cost of revenue

$185M−49.54% QoQ

Operating expenses

$144M−0.74% QoQ

Depreciation $121M

Other operating $22M

Other expense

$24M

Tax

$46M−44.19% QoQ

Revenue$537M−37.38%

Gross profit

$352M−28.32%

65.58% margin

Operating income

$209M−39.81%

38.87% margin

Pre-tax income

$185M−44.07%

Net income

$139M−44.03%

25.79% margin

Cost of revenue

$185M−49.54%

Operating expenses

$144M−0.74%

Depreciation $121M

Other operating $22M

Other expense

$24M

Tax$46M−44.19%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PCE ×1.30· ±1.3% vs ±1.0% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.3%9 of 19×1.30

CPIconsumer prices±1.2%6 of 11×1.27

FOMCrate decision±1.2%11 of 24×1.27

GDPgross domestic product±1.1%10 of 19×1.18

PPIproducer prices±0.8%4 of 11×0.78

CPROFcorporate profits±0.6%5 of 12×0.64

NFPjobs report±0.6%6 of 10×0.63

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.0% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.0% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.45 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Jul 30 '26 · confirmed	1.45	—
Q2 FY26	—	2.59	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod