What move does the options market price into Madrigal Pharmaceuticals's report?

Implied ±8.5%, either direction.

How often does Madrigal Pharmaceuticals move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

MDGLNasdaqPharmaceutical Preparations

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

433.06

Closed17:52 ET

Open432.99Volume251,657Mkt cap$9.9BEPS-13.98

Day427.63 – 436.0065%52-wk399.00 – 615.0016%

MDGL

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±8.5%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±9.0%·×0.95·fair

393.68467.04

straddle ±11.8%

spot 430.36exp Nov 20ATM strike 430ATM straddle 59.55IV 72%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 3

before open · in 3 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−9.83%

vs ±10.5% implied · ×0.94

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Jul 30 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

38dPFE · supplierEli Lilly Vs. Pfizer in 2027: One Is a Much Better Place to Park Your Pharmaceutical Capital Next Year

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−2.50%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

417 managers

Top fund weight

1.06%

MDGL weight · XBI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) is expected to report on Nov 3 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±10.2%
avg realized: ±9.0%

Jan 13 '25Jan 13 '25confirmed±8.9%▼−10.39%×1.17

Feb 26 '25Feb 26 '25confirmed±13.4%▲+14.99%×1.12

May 1 '25May 1 '25confirmed±11.3%▼−1.86%×0.17

Aug 5 '25Aug 5 '25confirmed±9.2%▲+8.59%×0.93

Nov 4 '25Nov 4 '25confirmed±12.9%▲+7.83%×0.61

Feb 19 '26Feb 19 '26confirmed±6.2%▼−11.11%×1.78

Q1 FY26May 6 '26confirmed±9.2%▲+7.42%×0.80

Q2 FY26Jul 30 '26confirmed±10.5%▼−9.83%×0.94

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q2 FY26±10.5%▼−9.83%×0.94

Q1 FY26±9.2%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 5 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.97OI · 5 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

908+20%Nov 2020d462+12%

1,7650%Dec 1848d0.453,8960%0.45

615+1%Jan 1576d0.351,749+6%0.35

2310%Mar 19139d0.171,349−2%0.17

19+36%Apr 16167d0.5634+6%0.56

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2020d908+20%462+12%1.97

Dec 1848d1,7650%3,8960%0.45

Jan 1576d615+1%1,749+6%0.35

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±11.8%

Funds 3

XBI±0.1%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−15.91%as filednet margin · revenue +17.00% QoQ · +71.17% YoY

Revenue$364M+17.00%

Gross profit$364M100.00%+17.00%

Operating income−$56M−15.46%+39.27%

Pre-tax income−$58M+38.62%

Net income−$58M−15.91%+38.62%

Cost of revenue$0—

Operating expenses$421M+4.08%

Other expense−$2M+2.22%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 17:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

GDP ×0.99· ±2.4% vs ±2.4% · 20 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

GDPgross domestic product±2.4%9 of 20×0.99

CPROFcorporate profits±2.0%7 of 12×0.82

NFPjobs report±1.9%2 of 10×0.81

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.9%11 of 20×0.79

PPIproducer prices±1.8%4 of 11×0.74

FOMCrate decision±1.7%11 of 25×0.71

CPIconsumer prices±1.3%5 of 11×0.52

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±2.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -1.99 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Jul 30 '26 · confirmed	-1.99	—
Q1 FY26	May 6 '26 · confirmed	-3.25	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod