What move does the options market price into Grand Canyon Education's report?

Implied ±15.2%, either direction · provisional.

LOPENasdaqServices-Educational Services

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

117.14

−5.11 · −4.18%

post 117.14 0.00%

After hours16:00 ETdelayed

Open122.07Volume1.2MMkt cap$3.1BP/E12.46EPS9.40

Day115.35 – 122.0727%52-wk120.09 – 182.160%

LOPE

Grand Canyon Education, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±15.2%implied · straddle

103.72140.78

spot 122.25exp Mar 19ATM strike 120ATM straddle 21.80IV 37%

Nov 5 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 17

after close · in 103 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−18.86%

vs ±8.0% implied · ×2.35

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Nov 4 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

13F top-10 QoQ

−5.52%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26129d lag

450 managers

Top fund weight

0.10%

LOPE weight · MDY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) is expected to report on Feb 17 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

2 reports

—≥ implied

Q2 FY26Jul 30 '26confirmed—▼−3.19%—

Q3 FY26Nov 4 '26confirmed±8.0%▼−18.86%×2.35

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q3 FY26±8.0%▼−18.86%×2.35

Q2 FY26—▼−3.19%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Nov 5 close

0.27OI · 3 expiries · Nov 5 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

101+22%Nov 2014d0.52194+8%0.52

247+1%Dec 1842d0.733370%0.73

report · Feb 17 · after close · est.

340%Mar 19133d126+3%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2014d101+22%194+8%0.52

Dec 1842d247+1%3370%0.73

report · Feb 17 · after close · est.

Mar 19133d340%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±15.2%

Funds 4

MDY±0.0%

REVS±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

16.09%as filednet margin · revenue +1.25% QoQ · +2.38% YoY

Revenue

$267M+1.25% QoQ

Gross profit

$179M+1.72% QoQ

66.96% margin

Operating income

$51M−11.50% QoQ

19.25% margin

Pre-tax income

$54M−11.66% QoQ

Net income

$43M−6.19% QoQ

16.09% margin

Cost of revenue

$88M+0.31% QoQ

Operating expenses

$128M+8.25% QoQ

Marketing $65M

Other operating $43M

SG&A $17M

Other operating $2M

Tax

$11M−28.39% QoQ

Other income

$2M−15.28% QoQ

Revenue$267M+1.25%

Gross profit

$179M+1.72%

66.96% margin

Operating income

$51M−11.50%

19.25% margin

Pre-tax income

$54M−11.66%

Net income

$43M−6.19%

16.09% margin

Cost of revenue

$88M+0.31%

Operating expenses

$128M+8.25%

Marketing $65M

Other operating $43M

SG&A $17M

Other income$2M−15.28%

Tax$11M−28.39%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 5 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.51· ±1.9% vs ±1.2% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±1.9%9 of 10×1.51

FOMCrate decision±1.7%17 of 24×1.33

PPIproducer prices±1.5%7 of 11×1.18

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.2%10 of 20×0.96

CPROFcorporate profits±1.2%5 of 12×0.96

GDPgross domestic product±1.2%10 of 20×0.94

CPIconsumer prices±1.1%4 of 11×0.90

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.2% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.2% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.67 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Nov 4 '26 · confirmed	1.67	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 30 '26 · confirmed	1.75	—
Q1 FY26	—	2.80	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod