What move does the options market price into KeyCorp's report?

Implied ±10.1%, either direction · provisional.

How often does KeyCorp move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

KEYNYSENational Commercial Banks

KeyCorp (KEY) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

21.11

−0.38 · −1.77%

post 21.11 0.00%

Closed16:00 ET

Open21.26Volume18.7MMkt cap$22.5BP/E12.20EPS1.73Div yield3.88%

Day20.94 – 21.2654%52-wk16.24 – 23.8464%

KEY

KeyCorp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±10.1%implied · straddle

18.9923.25

spot 21.12exp Feb 19ATM strike 21ATM straddle 2.50IV 27%

Oct 30 closeprovisionalthin chain

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 19

before open · in 78 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+4.47%

vs ±6.0% implied · ×0.75

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 20 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

filed ties

13F top-10 QoQ

+2.10%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26125d lag

938 managers

Top fund weight

0.28%

KEY weight · XLF

N-PORTJun 30 '26

9 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

KeyCorp (KEY) is expected to report on Jan 19 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±4.3%
avg realized: ±2.5%

Jan 21 '25Jan 21 '25confirmed±3.6%▼−3.61%×1.01

Apr 17 '25Apr 17 '25confirmed±3.6%▲+1.42%×0.39

Jul 22 '25Jul 22 '25confirmed±3.1%▲+2.35%×0.75

Q3 FY25Oct 16 '25confirmed±4.5%▼−5.36%×1.20

Jan 20 '26Jan 20 '26confirmed±5.3%▼−0.38%×0.07

Q1 FY26Apr 16 '26confirmed±2.6%▲+0.46%×0.18

Q2 FY26Jul 21 '26confirmed±6.1%▼−1.59%×0.26

Oct 20 '26Oct 20 '26confirmed±6.0%▲+4.47%×0.75

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Oct '26±6.0%▲+4.47%×0.75

Q2 FY26±6.1%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 6 expiries · Oct 29 close

0.06OI · 6 expiries · Oct 29 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

4,4680%Nov 2018d0.3811,8020%0.38

8,1820%Dec 1846d0.4617,8170%0.46

17,9390%Jan 1574d1.0716,7670%1.07

report · Jan 19 · before open · est.

220%Feb 19109d381+13%

2,4650%Mar 19137d0.962,581+1%0.96

1,021+1%Apr 16165d0.871,168+3%0.87

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2018d4,4680%11,8020%0.38

Dec 1846d8,1820%17,8170%0.46

Jan 1574d17,9390%16,7670%1.07

report · Jan 19 · before open · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±10.1%

Funds 4

XLF±0.0%

RSP±0.0%

VTV±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

26.02%as filednet margin · revenue +0.57% QoQ · +6.83% YoY

Revenue$2.0B+0.57%

Pre-tax income$647M−1.67%

Net income$509M26.02%−2.49%

Tax$139M+2.21%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mVolume ×0.90 · 20d avgSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.43· ±1.9% vs ±1.3% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±1.9%11 of 24×1.43

PPIproducer prices±1.2%5 of 11×0.87

GDPgross domestic product±1.2%11 of 20×0.86

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.1%11 of 20×0.79

CPROFcorporate profits±1.0%6 of 12×0.71

NFPjobs report±0.9%5 of 10×0.66

CPIconsumer prices±0.6%4 of 11×0.43

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.3% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.3% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.44 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Jul 21 '26 · confirmed	0.44	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 16 '26 · confirmed	0.44	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 16 '25 · confirmed	0.41	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod