What move does the options market price into Home Depot's report?

Implied ±3.3%, either direction.

How often does Home Depot move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

HDNYSERetail-Lumber & Other Building Materials Dealers

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

329.25

Closed19:40 ET

Open329.45Volume3.9MMkt cap$328.4BP/E23.01EPS14.31Div yield2.82%

Day328.34 – 333.1019%52-wk277.15 – 389.1847%

Home Depot, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±3.3%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±2.1%·×1.57·rich

318.31340.09

straddle ±5.8%

spot 329.20exp Nov 20ATM strike 330ATM straddle 22.55IV 36%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 17

before open · in 17 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−0.12%

vs ±3.7% implied · ×0.03

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 18 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

22.50%

of Hillman Solutions revenue

supplierHLMN 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+4.36%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

4,130 managers

Top fund weight

5.83%

HD weight · XLY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

12 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Home Depot (HD) is expected to report on Nov 17 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±3.6%
avg realized: ±2.1%

Nov 12 '24Nov 12 '24confirmed±3.1%▼−1.28%×0.41

Feb 25 '25Feb 25 '25confirmed±3.6%▲+2.84%×0.78

May 20 '25May 20 '25confirmed±3.3%▼−0.61%×0.18

Aug 19 '25Aug 19 '25confirmed±3.4%▲+3.17%×0.93

Q3 FY25Nov 18 '25confirmed±3.7%▼−6.02%×1.62

Feb 24 '26Feb 24 '26confirmed±3.7%▲+1.99%×0.54

Q1 FY26May 19 '26confirmed±4.2%▲+0.88%×0.21

Q2 FY26Aug 18 '26confirmed±3.7%▼−0.12%×0.03

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q2 FY26±3.7%▼−0.12%×0.03

Q1 FY26±4.2%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 9 expiries · Oct 29 close

0.73OI · 9 expiries · Oct 29 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

4,386+8%Nov 66d0.656,796+5%0.65

6,174+3%Nov 1313d1.254,954+2%1.25

report · Nov 17 · before open · est.

18,8040%Nov 2020d25,9350%

338+17%Nov 2727d0.72469+91%0.72

175+5%Dec 434d1.22143+11%1.22

4 later expiries

17,2030%Dec 1848d0.7921,7130%0.79

21,018+4%Jan 1576d0.66

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 66d4,386+8%6,796+5%0.65

Nov 1313d6,174+3%4,954+2%1.25

report · Nov 17 · before open · est.

Nov 2020d18,8040%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±5.8%

Funds 4

XLY±0.3%

SCHD±0.2%

DIA±0.2%

VIG±0.1%

Suppliers 4

MBC±7.2%×1.23

TREX±6.7%×1.15

BCC±6.3%×1.08

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 499dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

9.96%as filednet margin · revenue +14.60% QoQ · +5.71% YoY

Revenue

$47.9B+14.60% QoQ

Product $46.3B

Service $1.6B

Gross profit

$16.1B+16.94% QoQ

33.67% margin

Operating income

$6.8B+37.30% QoQ

14.29% margin

Pre-tax income

$6.3B+44.28% QoQ

Net income

$4.8B+44.91% QoQ

9.96% margin

Cost of revenue

$31.7B+13.44% QoQ

Operating expenses

$9.3B+5.41% QoQ

SG&A $8.4B

Depreciation $852M

Other expense

$524M

Tax

$1.5B+42.37% QoQ

Revenue$47.9B+14.60%

Product $46.3B · Service $1.6B

Gross profit

$16.1B+16.94%

33.67% margin

Operating income

$6.8B+37.30%

14.29% margin

Pre-tax income

$6.3B+44.28%

Net income

$4.8B+44.91%

9.96% margin

Cost of revenue

$31.7B+13.44%

Operating expenses

$9.3B+5.41%

SG&A $8.4B

Depreciation $852M

Other expense

$524M

Tax$1.5B+42.37%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Aug 2 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.53· ±1.7% vs ±1.1% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±1.7%6 of 11×1.53

FOMCrate decision±1.6%10 of 25×1.40

NFPjobs report±1.3%7 of 10×1.19

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.1%11 of 20×0.93

CPIconsumer prices±0.9%5 of 11×0.83

GDPgross domestic product±0.8%11 of 20×0.74

CPROFcorporate profits±0.6%6 of 12×0.56

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 4.79 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 18 '26 · confirmed	4.79	—
Q1 FY26	May 19 '26 · confirmed	3.30	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 18 '25 · confirmed	3.62	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod