What move does the options market price into Graphic Packaging's report?

Implied ±8.1%, either direction.

GPKNYSEPaperboard Containers & Boxes

Graphic Packaging Holding Co (GPK) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

8.95

+0.14 · +1.64%

post 8.95 +0.01%

Closed16:00 ET

Open8.88Volume9.9MMkt cap$2.6BP/E13.78EPS0.65Div yield4.92%

Day8.83 – 8.95100%52-wk8.15 – 16.5310%

GPK

Graphic Packaging Holding Co

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±8.1%implied · report alone

8.239.67

straddle ±13.5%

spot 8.95exp Nov 20ATM strike 10ATM straddle 1.42IV 62%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 3

before open · in 4 days

confirmedQ3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+4.76%

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 4 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

4hPG · customerProcter & Gamble closes $750,000,000, $750,000,000, $1,250,000,000 and $1,250,000,000 notes
12hCL · customerColgate posts Q3 net income $751 million, sales $5,369 million, EPS $0.94
1dKMB · customerKimberly Clark sells $4.9 billion senior notes across five tranches

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+19.51%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

503 managers

Top fund weight

0.09%

GPK weight · MDY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Graphic Packaging (GPK) reports on Nov 3 before open (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

1 report

—≥ implied

Q2 FY26Aug 4 '26confirmed—▲+4.76%—

quarterimplied−5%0+5%realized×

Q2 FY26—▲+4.76%—

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 29 close

0.39OI · 4 expiries · Oct 29 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

222+13%Nov 2021d568+286%

1,2610%Dec 1849d0.961,310+11%0.96

1,3670%Jan 1577d0.0621,1400%0.06

274+3%Mar 19140d0.083,408+2%0.08

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2021d222+13%568+286%0.39

Dec 1849d1,2610%1,310+11%0.96

Jan 1577d1,3670%21,1400%0.06

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±13.5%

Funds 3

MDY±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

1.10%as filednet margin · revenue +1.48% QoQ · −0.73% YoY

Revenue

$2.2B+1.48% QoQ

Gross profit

$292M−4.58% QoQ

13.35% margin

Operating income

$95M+400.00% QoQ

4.34% margin

Pre-tax income

$26M+157.78% QoQ

Net income

$24M+155.81% QoQ

1.10% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.9B+2.49% QoQ

Operating expenses

$197M−31.36% QoQ

SG&A $180M

Other operating $11M

Other operating $6M

Other expense

$69M

Tax

$2M+200.00% QoQ

Revenue$2.2B+1.48%

Gross profit

$292M−4.58%

13.35% margin

Operating income

$95M+400.00%

4.34% margin

Pre-tax income

$26M+157.78%

Net income

$24M+155.81%

1.10% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.9B+2.49%

Operating expenses

$197M−31.36%

SG&A $180M

Other operating $11M

Other operating $6M

Other expense

$69M

Tax$2M+200.00%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.48· ±2.3% vs ±1.5% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±2.3%4 of 10×1.48

FOMCrate decision±1.8%11 of 24×1.21

PPIproducer prices±1.5%5 of 10×1.01

CPROFcorporate profits±1.5%6 of 12×1.01

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.5%10 of 19×1.01

GDPgross domestic product±1.5%8 of 19×0.99

CPIconsumer prices±1.4%3 of 10×0.94

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.5% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.5% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.08 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 4 '26 · confirmed	0.08	—
Q1 FY26	—	-0.14	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod