What move does the options market price into Shift4 Payments's report?

Implied ±12.5%, either direction.

FOURNYSEServices-Business Services, NEC

Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

40.03

+0.78 · +1.98%

post 40.03 0.00%

Closed16:00 ET

Open39.00Volume2.7MMkt cap$3.2BP/E71.84

Day38.63 – 40.6171%52-wk34.56 – 76.0913%

FOUR

Shift4 Payments, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±12.5%implied · report alone

35.0245.04

straddle ±15.5%

spot 40.03exp Nov 20ATM strike 40ATM straddle 7.30IV 96%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

before open · in 5 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−18.77%

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 6 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

20hAXP · supplierAmerican Express issues $1,500,000,000 5.447% and $1,150,000,000 5.817% notes; $350,000,000 floating
1dV · supplierSecret SantAI? Visa Survey Finds Americans Quietly Turning to AI for Holiday Shopping Help
2dMA · supplierMastercard Q3 net income $4,628 million, net revenue $9,807 million, EPS $5.28

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−5.64%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

368 managers

Top fund weight

0.08%

FOUR weight · MDY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Shift4 Payments (FOUR) is expected to report on Nov 5 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

1 report

—≥ implied

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed—▼−18.77%—

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q2 FY26—▼−18.77%—

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.64OI · 4 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

5,648+5%Nov 2020d3,445+9%

4,002+5%Dec 1848d0.606,634−1%0.60

7,7150%Jan 1576d0.2728,150+1%0.27

1,342+8%Apr 16167d1.101,215+5%1.10

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2020d5,648+5%3,445+9%1.64

Dec 1848d4,002+5%6,634−1%0.60

Jan 1576d7,7150%28,150+1%0.27

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±15.5%

Funds 3

MDY±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

1.85%as filednet margin · revenue +15.52% QoQ · +34.06% YoY

Revenue

$1.3B+15.52% QoQ

Gross profit

$446M+13.78% QoQ

34.44% margin

Operating income

$95M+90.00% QoQ

7.34% margin

Pre-tax income

$37M+408.33% QoQ

Net income

$24M+100.00% QoQ

1.85% margin

Cost of revenue

$849M+16.46% QoQ

Operating expenses

$351M+2.63% QoQ

SG&A $246M

Depreciation $94M

Marketing $11M

Other expense

$58M

Tax

$13M+154.17% QoQ

Revenue$1.3B+15.52%

Gross profit

$446M+13.78%

34.44% margin

Operating income

$95M+90.00%

7.34% margin

Pre-tax income

$37M+408.33%

Net income

$24M+100.00%

1.85% margin

Cost of revenue

$849M+16.46%

Operating expenses

$351M+2.63%

SG&A $246M

Depreciation $94M

Marketing $11M

Other expense

$58M

Tax$13M+154.17%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.88· ±4.3% vs ±2.3% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±4.3%8 of 11×1.88

NFPjobs report±3.3%4 of 10×1.43

CPIconsumer prices±2.7%6 of 11×1.19

GDPgross domestic product±2.2%8 of 19×0.94

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.1%5 of 19×0.91

FOMCrate decision±1.8%8 of 24×0.78

CPROFcorporate profits±1.6%7 of 12×0.71

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±2.3% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.3% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.16 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	0.16	—
Q1 FY26	—	-0.02	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod