What move does the options market price into Fastenal's report?

Implied ±9.9%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Fastenal move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 6 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

FASTNasdaqRetail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply

Fastenal Co (FAST) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

52.34

−0.21 · −0.40%

post 52.11 −0.44%

After hours16:56 ETdelayed

Open52.78Volume6.3MMkt cap$60.3BP/E42.02EPS1.24Div yield1.90%

Day52.06 – 52.995%52-wk38.15 – 53.3092%

FAST

Fastenal Co

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±9.9%implied · straddle

47.5358.02

spot 52.77exp Feb 19ATM strike 52.5ATM straddle 6.17IV 27%

Nov 3 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 19

before open · in 77 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+1.11%

vs ±6.8% implied · ×0.16

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 14 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

filed ties

13F top-10 QoQ

+2.33%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26126d lag

1,464 managers

Top fund weight

1.38%

FAST weight · SCHD

N-PORTAug 31 '26

13 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Fastenal (FAST) is expected to report on Jan 19 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 6≥ implied

avg implied: ±5.8%
avg realized: ±3.6%

Jan 17 '25Jan 17 '25confirmed±6.1%▲+1.75%×0.28

Apr 11 '25Apr 11 '25confirmed±7.1%▲+6.40%×0.90

Jul 14 '25Jul 14 '25confirmed—▲+4.16%—

Oct 14 '25Oct 14 '25confirmed—▲+0.99%—

Jan 20 '26Jan 20 '26confirmed±6.6%▼−2.56%×0.39

Q1 FY26Apr 13 '26confirmed±4.3%▼−6.85%×1.60

Q2 FY26Jul 14 '26confirmed±4.1%▼−2.78%×0.68

Q3 FY26Oct 14 '26confirmed±6.8%▲+1.11%×0.16

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q3 FY26±6.8%▲+1.11%×0.16

Q2 FY26±4.1%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 5 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.62OI · 5 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

7,1010%Nov 2017d0.4017,912−6%0.40

5,1120%Dec 1845d0.4012,8150%0.40

4,3160%Jan 1573d0.3711,5720%0.37

report · Jan 19 · before open · est.

2,350+9%Feb 19108d3,768+7%

1,5680%Mar 19136d0.612,5900%0.61

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2017d7,1010%17,912−6%0.40

Dec 1845d5,1120%12,8150%0.40

Jan 1573d4,3160%11,5720%0.37

report · Jan 19 · before open · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±9.9%

Funds 4

SCHD±0.1%

XLI±0.1%

FTC±0.0%

QQQ±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

16.30%as filednet margin · revenue +3.20% QoQ · +15.47% YoY

Revenue

$2.5B+3.20% QoQ

Gross profit

$1.1B+3.86% QoQ

44.85% margin

Operating income

$531M+5.78% QoQ

21.55% margin

Pre-tax income

$531M+5.80% QoQ

Net income

$402M+4.91% QoQ

16.30% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.4B+2.67% QoQ

Operating expenses

$574M+2.15% QoQ

Tax

$130M+8.63% QoQ

Other income

$400,000+33.33% QoQ

Revenue$2.5B+3.20%

Gross profit

$1.1B+3.86%

44.85% margin

Operating income

$531M+5.78%

21.55% margin

Pre-tax income

$531M+5.80%

Net income

$402M+4.91%

16.30% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.4B+2.67%

Operating expenses

$574M+2.15%

Other income$400,000+33.33%

Tax$130M+8.63%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 16:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PCE ×1.13· ±1.2% vs ±1.1% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.2%11 of 19×1.13

CPIconsumer prices±1.0%7 of 10×0.98

NFPjobs report±1.0%6 of 10×0.97

FOMCrate decision±1.0%7 of 24×0.97

PPIproducer prices±1.0%5 of 10×0.95

GDPgross domestic product±0.8%12 of 19×0.76

CPROFcorporate profits±0.8%7 of 12×0.71

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.35 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 14 '26 · confirmed	0.35	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 14 '26 · confirmed	0.33	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 13 '26 · confirmed	0.30	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod