What move does the options market price into eBay's report?

Implied ±13.5%, either direction · provisional.

How often does eBay move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

EBAYNasdaqServices-Business Services, NEC

eBay Inc (EBAY) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

125.17

+6.55 · +5.52%

post 125.50 +0.27%

After hours17:32 ETdelayed

Open118.47Volume3.9MMkt cap$52.1BP/E26.76EPS4.69Div yield1.03%

Day118.47 – 126.2491%52-wk77.32 – 124.59100%

EBAY

eBay Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±13.5%implied · straddle

108.28142.02

spot 125.15exp Mar 19ATM strike 125ATM straddle 19.85IV 33%

Nov 4 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 17

after close · in 105 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+2.69%

vs ±7.0% implied · ×0.39

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 28 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

6dPRTS · supplierCarParts.com reports third-quarter net sales $129,331, net loss $4,107
7dETSY · supplierEtsy Q3 net income $853,517 thousand; gain on sale of Depop $839,716 thousand
11dIPW · supplierIPW trading halt (T3) · resumed 09:00 ET

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+11.40%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

1,293 managers

Top fund weight

1.23%

EBAY weight · XLY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

10 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

eBay (EBAY) is expected to report on Feb 17 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±6.0%
avg realized: ±5.3%

Apr 30 '25Apr 30 '25confirmed±5.7%▼−0.72%×0.13

Jul 30 '25Jul 30 '25confirmed±5.2%▲+18.30%×3.52

Q3 FY25Oct 29 '25confirmed±6.9%▼−15.88%×2.30

Feb 18 '26Feb 18 '26confirmed±8.4%▲+3.13%×0.37

Q1 FY26Apr 29 '26confirmed±6.0%▼−0.30%×0.05

Q2 FY26Aug 5 '26confirmed±6.9%▼−0.91%×0.13

Q3 FY26Oct 22 '26confirmed±2.0%▼−0.70%×0.35

Oct 28 '26Oct 28 '26confirmed±7.0%▲+2.69%×0.39

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Oct '26±7.0%▲+2.69%×0.39

Q3 FY26±2.0%▼−0.70%×0.35

Q2 FY26±6.9%▼−0.91%×0.13

Q1 FY26±6.0%▼−0.30%×0.05

Feb '26±8.4%▲+3.13%×0.37

Q3 FY25±6.9%▼−15.88%×2.30

2 older reports

Jul '25±5.2%▲+18.30%×3.52

Apr '25±5.7%▼−0.72%×0.13

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 9 expiries · Oct 28 close

1.21OI · 9 expiries · Oct 28 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

5 nearer expiries

503+25%Nov 62d0.70715+4%0.70

191+2%Nov 139d0.742590%0.74

3,102+16%Nov 2016d0.398,0550%0.39

0—Nov 2723d—0——

275−1%Dec 430d68.754+100%68.75

10,9120%Dec 1844d1.258,7540%1.25

13,4670%Jan 1572d0.8915,0930%0.89

report · Feb 17 · after close · est.

2,3070%Mar 19135d1,914+2%

2660%Apr 16163d2.7497−1%2.74

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

5 nearer expiries

Nov 62d503+25%715+4%0.70

Nov 139d191+2%2590%0.74

Nov 2016d3,102+16%8,0550%0.39

Nov 2723d0—0——

Dec 430d275−1%4+100%68.75

Dec 1844d10,9120%8,7540%1.25

Jan 1572d13,4670%15,0930%0.89

report · Feb 17 · after close · est.

Mar 19135d2,3070%1,914+2%1.21

Apr 16163d2660%97−1%2.74

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±13.5%

Funds 4

XLY±0.2%

FTC±0.1%

RSP±0.0%

VTV±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

15.50%as filednet margin · revenue +2.30% QoQ · +13.69% YoY

Revenue

$3.2B+2.30% QoQ

Gross profit

$2.3B+0.74% QoQ

72.33% margin

Operating income

$616M−8.88% QoQ

19.21% margin

Pre-tax income

$605M−9.02% QoQ

Net income

$497M−9.64% QoQ

15.50% margin

Cost of revenue

$887M+6.61% QoQ

Operating expenses

$1.7B+4.74% QoQ

Marketing $747M

R&D $517M

SG&A $303M

Other operating $136M

Other expense

$17M

Tax

$104M−7.96% QoQ

Revenue$3.2B+2.30%

Gross profit

$2.3B+0.74%

72.33% margin

Operating income

$616M−8.88%

19.21% margin

Pre-tax income

$605M−9.02%

Net income

$497M−9.64%

15.50% margin

Cost of revenue

$887M+6.61%

Operating expenses

$1.7B+4.74%

Marketing $747M

R&D $517M

SG&A $303M

Other expense

$17M

Tax$104M−7.96%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 17:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PCE ×1.59· ±2.2% vs ±1.4% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.2%12 of 19×1.59

PPIproducer prices±2.0%8 of 10×1.47

CPIconsumer prices±2.0%6 of 10×1.41

GDPgross domestic product±1.7%10 of 19×1.20

NFPjobs report±1.5%6 of 10×1.11

FOMCrate decision±1.3%10 of 24×0.94

CPROFcorporate profits±1.0%6 of 12×0.75

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.10 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 22 '26 · confirmed	1.10	—
Q2 FY26	Aug 5 '26 · confirmed	1.21	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 29 '26 · confirmed	1.12	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 29 '25 · confirmed	1.35	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod