What move does the options market price into Dollar General's report?

Implied ±5.7%, either direction.

How often does Dollar General move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

DGNYSERetail-Variety Stores

Dollar General Corp (DG) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

141.67

pre 142.00 +0.25%

Pre-market07:27 ETdelayed

Open142.00Volume3.6MMkt cap$31.2BP/E18.37EPS7.73Div yield1.67%

Day142.00 – 143.000%52-wk93.32 – 155.9178%

Dollar General Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±5.7%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±6.2%·×0.93·fair

133.55149.73

straddle ±9.1%

spot 141.64exp Dec 4ATM strike 142ATM straddle 15.22IV 47%

Nov 4 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Dec 3

before open · in 28 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+2.53%

vs ±7.2% implied · ×0.35

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 27 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

11.00%

of Werner Enterprises revenue

supplierWERN 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−0.15%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

1,136 managers

Top fund weight

1.65%

DG weight · XLP

N-PORTJun 30 '26

10 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Dollar General (DG) is expected to report on Dec 3 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±7.6%
avg realized: ±6.2%

Dec 5 '24Dec 5 '24confirmed±9.2%▲+0.13%×0.01

Mar 13 '25Mar 13 '25confirmed±7.5%▲+6.81%×0.91

Jun 3 '25Jun 3 '25confirmed±7.5%▲+15.85%×2.12

Aug 28 '25Aug 28 '25confirmed±7.0%▲+0.46%×0.07

Q3 FY25Dec 4 '25confirmed±6.5%▲+14.01%×2.17

Mar 12 '26Mar 12 '26confirmed±7.4%▼−6.14%×0.83

Q1 FY26Jun 2 '26confirmed±8.6%▼−3.33%×0.39

Q2 FY26Aug 27 '26confirmed±7.2%▲+2.53%×0.35

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q2 FY26±7.2%▲+2.53%×0.35

Q1 FY26±8.6%▼−3.33%×0.39

Mar '26±7.4%▼−6.14%×0.83

Q3 FY25±6.5%▲+14.01%×2.17

Aug '25±7.0%▲+0.46%×0.07

Jun '25±7.5%▲+15.85%×2.12

2 older reports

Mar '25±7.5%▲+6.81%×0.91

Dec '24±9.2%▲+0.13%×0.01

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.42OI · 10 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Dec 4 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

2 nearer expiries

1,140+16%Nov 61d0.581,957+11%0.58

749+1%Nov 138d0.84895+4%0.84

8,7190%Nov 2015d1.187,388−6%1.18

179+6%Nov 2722d0.84213+6%0.84

report · Dec 3 · before open · est.

18+200%Dec 429d43+87%

40%Dec 1136d0.3611+267%0.36

6,3740%Dec 1843d0.798,052+1%0.79

3 later expiries

13,316+6%Jan 1571d1.3210,0800%1.32

8760%Feb 19106d1.58553+3%1.58

2,6870%Mar 19134d2.561,0500%2.56

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

2 nearer expiries

Nov 61d1,140+16%1,957+11%0.58

Nov 138d749+1%895+4%0.84

Nov 2015d8,7190%7,388−6%1.18

Nov 2722d179+6%213+6%0.84

report · Dec 3 · before open · est.

Dec 429d18+200%43+87%0.42

Dec 1136d40%11+267%0.36

Dec 1843d6,3740%8,052+1%0.79

3 later expiries

Jan 1571d13,316+6%10,0800%1.32

Feb 19106d8760%553+3%1.58

Mar 19134d2,6870%1,0500%2.56

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±9.1%

Funds 4

XLP±0.2%

REVS±0.0%

RSP±0.0%

VTV±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

4.87%as filednet margin · revenue +4.67% QoQ · +5.24% YoY

Revenue

$11.3B+4.67% QoQ

Consumables $9.3B

Seasonal $1.2B

Home Products $537M

Apparel $303M

Gross profit

$3.7B+7.93% QoQ

32.60% margin

Operating income

$769M+20.46% QoQ

6.81% margin

Pre-tax income

$726M+22.83% QoQ

Net income

$550M+23.91% QoQ

4.87% margin

Cost of revenue

$7.6B+3.16% QoQ

Operating expenses

$2.9B+5.04% QoQ

Other expense

$43M

Tax

$176M+19.58% QoQ

Revenue$11.3B+4.67%

Consumables $9.3B · Seasonal $1.2B

Gross profit

$3.7B+7.93%

32.60% margin

Operating income

$769M+20.46%

6.81% margin

Pre-tax income

$726M+22.83%

Net income

$550M+23.91%

4.87% margin

Cost of revenue

$7.6B+3.16%

Operating expenses

$2.9B+5.04%

Other expense

$43M

Tax$176M+19.58%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jul 31 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 07:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPROF ×1.14· ±1.9% vs ±1.6% · 12 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPROFcorporate profits±1.9%4 of 12×1.14

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.7%8 of 19×1.05

CPIconsumer prices±1.6%4 of 10×0.98

PPIproducer prices±1.6%6 of 10×0.96

FOMCrate decision±1.5%10 of 24×0.95

GDPgross domestic product±1.5%7 of 19×0.90

NFPjobs report±1.0%6 of 10×0.64

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.6% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.6% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.48 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 27 '26 · confirmed	2.48	—
Q1 FY26	Jun 2 '26 · confirmed	2.00	—
Q3 FY25	Dec 4 '25 · confirmed	1.28	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod