What move does the options market price into Deere's report?

Implied ±5.2%, either direction.

How often does Deere move more than the options market prices?

6 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

DENYSEFarm Machinery & Equipment

Deere & Co (DE) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

662.21

−13.27 · −1.96%

Regular session14:27 ET

Open666.67Volume1.3MMkt cap$182.1BP/E36.69EPS18.05Div yield0.96%

Day662.21 – 666.670%52-wk449.37 – 719.5079%

Deere & Co

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±5.2%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±6.3%·×0.83·cheap

640.21710.75

straddle ±7.7%

spot 675.48exp Nov 27ATM strike 680ATM straddle 61.35IV 41%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 25

before open · in 23 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+6.94%

vs ±4.2% implied · ×1.65

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 20 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

10.00%

of Mayville Engineering revenue

supplierMEC 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+5.32%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26125d lag

2,678 managers

Top fund weight

2.77%

DE weight · XLI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

11 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Deere (DE) is expected to report on Nov 25 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

6 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±4.4%
avg realized: ±6.3%

Nov 21 '24Nov 21 '24confirmed±3.8%▲+8.05%×2.13

Feb 13 '25Feb 13 '25confirmed±4.0%▼−2.17%×0.55

May 15 '25May 15 '25confirmed±4.5%▲+3.78%×0.85

Aug 14 '25Aug 14 '25confirmed±4.5%▼−6.76%×1.50

Nov 26 '25Nov 26 '25confirmed±5.0%▼−5.67%×1.14

Q1 FY26Feb 19 '26confirmed±5.0%▲+11.58%×2.32

Q2 FY26May 21 '26confirmed±4.6%▼−5.19%×1.13

Q3 FY26Aug 20 '26confirmed±4.2%▲+6.94%×1.65

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q3 FY26±4.2%▲+6.94%×1.65

Q2 FY26±4.6%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 8 expiries · Oct 28 close

0.73OI · 8 expiries · Oct 28 closeP/C open interest · Dec 4 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

572+51%Nov 64d1.00571+21%1.00

574+34%Nov 1311d2.09275+26%2.09

2,209+3%Nov 2018d0.902,450+6%0.90

report · Nov 25 · before open · est.

43+760%Dec 432d59+20%

6,564+1%Dec 1846d1.125,875+2%1.12

5,7620%Jan 1574d0.975,9340%0.97

2 later expiries

1,9280%Feb 19109d2.238630%2.23

2,2370%Mar 19137d1.61

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 64d572+51%571+21%1.00

Nov 1311d574+34%275+26%2.09

Nov 2018d2,209+3%2,450+6%0.90

report · Nov 25 · before open · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±7.7%

Funds 4

XLI±0.2%

ARKK±0.1%

JEPI±0.1%

VTV±0.0%

Suppliers 4

TWI±6.2%×0.81

DAN±4.0%×0.51

ATMU±3.5%×0.46

Customers 1

LOW±2.3%×0.29

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 500dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

10.92%as filednet margin · revenue −5.69% QoQ · +4.91% YoY

Revenue

$12.6B−5.69% QoQ

Gross profit

$4.7B−8.50% QoQ

37.03% margin

Operating income

$2.6B−13.74% QoQ

20.56% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.9B−17.92% QoQ

Net income

$1.4B−22.20% QoQ

10.92% margin

Cost of revenue

$7.9B−3.96% QoQ

Operating expenses

$2.1B−1.00% QoQ

SG&A $1.5B

R&D $567M

Other expense

$710M

Tax

$529M+2.12% QoQ

Revenue$12.6B−5.69%

Gross profit

$4.7B−8.50%

37.03% margin

Operating income

$2.6B−13.74%

20.56% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.9B−17.92%

Net income

$1.4B−22.20%

10.92% margin

Cost of revenue

$7.9B−3.96%

Operating expenses

$2.1B−1.00%

SG&A $1.5B

R&D $567M

Other expense

$710M

Tax$529M+2.12%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Aug 2 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mVolume ×0.25 · 20d avgSource: market data · 14:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PCE ×1.35· ±1.7% vs ±1.3% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.7%10 of 19×1.35

NFPjobs report±1.4%3 of 10×1.10

FOMCrate decision±1.3%13 of 24×1.02

GDPgross domestic product±1.3%9 of 19×1.01

CPROFcorporate profits±1.2%5 of 12×0.97

PPIproducer prices±1.1%5 of 10×0.90

CPIconsumer prices±1.0%5 of 10×0.79

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.3% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.3% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 5.10 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Aug 20 '26 · confirmed	5.10	—
Q2 FY26	May 21 '26 · confirmed	6.55	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 19 '26 · confirmed	2.42	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod